Commodities Daily - September 27, 2019

> Oil holds steady as focus shifts to politics and geopolitics; US economic data on the radar. This morning, Brent continues to trade within the $62-63/bbl range. US personal incomes and spending, durable goods orders (both for August) will be published at 15:00 Moscow time and consumer sentiment data (for September) is due at 17:00. We think US personal incomes and spending are more likely to surprise to the upside, while consumer sentiment is likely to be flat m-o-m. This coupled with yet another bullish Baker Hughes US oil rig count could push Brent toward the upper end of the prevailing trading range of $62-63/bbl, where it would encounter technical resistance.> Gold prices down this morning to around $1,500/oz. Yesterday was a fairly quiet day. Several US data releases failed to budge gold price, nor did a comments by Fed officials and political leaders. This morning, data from France strengthened the dollar and put short-term pressure on gold prices (gold lost $10/oz to $1,497/oz). Today, US personal incomes and spending, durable goods orders and consumer confidence are all due. In the Multi-Asset Sputnik report that was published this morning, we upgraded our gold price forecast for 4Q19 to $1,550/oz due to the high political risks and significant investment demand for gold.