Commodities Daily - September 30, 2019

> Oil ticks lower as Chinese firms face possible delisting from US markets; Iran and global macro data in focus. Today investors will eye the EIA's 914 report on US oil production in July; it previously fell for a second straight month in June. Today and tomorrow, September production data for OPEC compiled by Reuters and Bloomberg are likely to be upbeat, with the focus on the Saudi production figures. We expect the above fundamental data to support Brent near the current $61/bbl mark early this week.> Gold prices under pressure this morning from stronger than expected Chinese manufacturing PMIs. The Chinese data has pushed gold lower, with quotes at $1,488/oz as we write. Nevertheless, over the course of the day, we expect a rebound toward $1,500/oz. We see support coming from economic statistics from Europe. > Base metal prices boosted ahead of long holiday in China. Despite positive Chinese PMIs this morning, copper has failed to push above $5,800/tonne, while zinc is trading around $2,300/tonne and aluminum $1,730/tonne. We think prices should remain flat over the course of the week. Market attention is focused on Xi's speech tomorrow at an official ceremony. He is expected to mention the US-China trade war and could comment on economic stimulus measures. The next round of US-China negotiations is scheduled to take place on October 10-11.