Commodities Weekly - October 5, 2020

> Oil. Oil has remained under pressure amid numerous negative fundamental developments, including the return of Libyan output and what seems to be an increase in exports from Saudi Arabia, Iraq and Russia. This all comes against the backdrop of a new wave of coronavirus cases around the world and US President Donald Trump's hospitalization for Covid-19. This week, oil traders will be digesting OPEC's annual World Oil Outlook to get the oil cartel's take on global supply and demand, with projections running to 2045. The monthly EIA report will also be on the radar. We think Brent is likely to keep hovering slightly above $40/bbl.> Gold and silver. Gold and silver investors will have plenty to consider this week. The minutes from the Fed's September meeting, due on Wednesday, could provide insight into what would be needed to trigger a rate hike under the new approach of targeting an average inflation level. From a technical perspective, a reversal in gold toward resistance at $1,910/oz is likely this week, with a break above opening the path to $1,925/oz.> Palladium. Last week, palladium recovered alongside other precious metals. It gained 3.7% over the last seven days. Chinese palladium import volumes declined in August for a second month in a row to 82 koz, though volumes are still well above 2019 levels. If Chinese palladium imports remain elevated and no more major lockdowns are put in place around the world, global palladium prices could remain well supported.> Base metals. China is on holiday until Thursday. Therefore this week base metal investors will be focused on the Fed minutes. If they suggest that further monetary stimulus is likely, this could trigger dollar weakness, boosting base metal prices. Other things to watch will be the ongoing fiscal stimulus talks in the US and the Covid-19 situation in Europe, including how governments act to contain the virus. > Agriculture. On Friday, the US Department of Agriculture will publish its closely watched WASDE report, which will contain its latest assessments of output, stockpiles and consumption. If the USDA makes further cuts to its harvest estimates, this would likely drive further price gains. On Thursday, the United Nations will publish its World Food Price Index, which may show another pandemic-driven uptick.