Report
Fedor Kornachev

Russian Utilities/Transport - Closing Short-Term Pair-Trade Idea

We close our short-term pair-trade idea to go long Unipro versus Globaltrans. The idea did not perform the way we had expected. Unipro announced another delay in the relaunch of the Berezovskaya TPP and revised its dividend guidance downward, while Globaltrans approved a share buyback, which supported the stock. As a result, the trade idea did not work and both stocks produced a roughly 16% total return in dollar terms since March 20.INVESTMENT CASEThe trade idea that Unipro should outperform Globaltrans owing to its better resilience did not perform. There ended up being company-specific factors that affected the performance of both stocks. For Unipro, there was another postponement of the relaunch of Berezovskaya TPP and a revision of the dividend guidance for 2020. As for Globaltrans, the news regarding the approval of the buyback for 5% of shareholder capital supported the stock. We expected Unipro's dividend to be more resilient and sustainable, whereas in fact it revised its dividend guidance downwards, while Globaltrans reiterated its dividend guidance, so the idea did not work well, and we therefore close it. PERFORMANCE AND WHAT'S IN THE PRICEBoth stocks produced a dollar-denominated total return of roughly 16% since inception. The total return of the RTS Index was more than 23% during the same period.
Underlyings
Globaltrans Investment Plc Sponsored GDR RegS

Globaltrans Investment is a rail transportation company in the Russian Federation. Co. is engaged in providing a wide range of railroad freight transport and logistics services. Co. provides rail freight transport and logistics services, as well as certain ancillary services to industrial customers and medium-size corporate customers in Russia and to destinations within Russia and to Ukraine. Co.'s regional network encompasses 10 branch offices. Co. is a private participant in the transportation of scrap and ferrous metals and it has market positions in the transportation of construction materials and ores.

Unipro

E.ON Russia is engaged in the wholesale electricity market, it produces and sells electric and heat power. As of Dec. 31, 2012, the structure of Co. includes five heat power plants with the total installed capacity of 10,345 MW/2,125.9 Gcal/h: Surgutskaya GRES-2 (Khanty-Mansi Autonomous Area, Tyumen Region), Berezovskaya GRES (Krasnoyarsk Territory), Shaturskaya GRES (Moscow Region), Smolenskaya GRES (Smolensk Region) and Yaivinskaya GRES (Perm Territory).

Provider
Sberbank
Sberbank

​Sberbank CIB Investment Research is a research firm offering equity, fixed income, economics, and strategy research. It covers analysis on all aspects of Russia’s capital markets, issues and industries. The firm analyzes trends in Russia and combines local knowledge with a global perspective. It processes macroeconomic data, market and company-specific news, stock quotes and other information for providing research reports. The firm provides details and latest prices on the most traded names and most traded paper on all segments Russian market. In strategy research, it provides thematic research, tips and descriptions of the methodology used to evaluate companies.

Analysts
Fedor Kornachev

Other Reports on these Companies
Other Reports from Sberbank

ResearchPool Subscriptions

Get the most out of your insights

Get in touch