SberCIB Trade Ideas - December 1, 2020
Promising vaccine developments have sparked a relief rally on global markets. The global economy's return to something like the pre-pandemic normal will take time, but a path forward toward that goal has begun to appear. In this environment, cyclical stocks should outperform, prompting us to open new trade ideas in resource sectors, while closing most of our previous trades.> Opening long Gazprom. This is a play on the European gas price recovery, which has not yet been fully priced in.> Opening long Nornickel. The stock trades at distressed valuations but is well positioned to benefit from the global economic recovery.> Replace long Rosneft versus Novatek with outright long Rosneft. The trade returned 17%, but now we close the short leg of the trade to get better exposure to improving energy demand.> Closing HeadHunter. We opened the trade in anticipation of a local listing and now close it to take 24% profit.> Closing TCS. The trade played out and returned 28% in absolute terms. > Closing Tatneft. We opened the trade just before the lockdown. Since then, the company was hit hard by tax changes. We fix a 44% loss.> Closing Globaltrans. The local listing has not helped the stock price, and in the absence of near-term catalysts, we close the trade.> Closing Etalon. We close this trade, as we see no near-term catalysts.> Closing Polymetal. We close this one in expectation of a continued rotation away from defensive names.> Keeping X5 Retail open. The improved outlook for the online and core businesses prompted us to increase our price target to $48.00 per share, and we also keep the trade open.> Keeping Mail.ru open. The local listing already helped the stock to outperform, while our sector team thinks the MSCI index inclusion may draw more active money to the name.Etalon Group is a real estate development and construction company. Co.'s principal activity is residential development in Saint-Petersburg metropolitan area and Moscow metropolitan area, the Russian Federation. Co. has three reportable segments: Residential Development, which includes construction of residential real estate including flats, built-in premises and parking places; Constructions Services, which includes construction services for third parties and for internal purpose; and Other Operations, which include selling of construction materials, construction of stand-alone premises for commercial use and various services related to sale and servicing of premises.
PJSC Gazprom is a gas company based in Russia. Co.'s principal activity is the sale of gas. Co. is also involved in other types of activities which include leasing of assets, gas transportation and storage services, sale of gas condensate and refined products. Co. and its subsidiaries and associates operates gas pipelines systems in Russia. Co. is responsible for substantially all gas production and high pressure gas transportation in the Russian Federation. Co. is also a major exporter of gas to European countries. Co. is directly involved in exploration and drilling for hydrocarbons, production of gas and other hydrocarbons and domestic and export sale of gas and other hydrocarbons.
Globaltrans Investment is a rail transportation company in the Russian Federation. Co. is engaged in providing a wide range of railroad freight transport and logistics services. Co. provides rail freight transport and logistics services, as well as certain ancillary services to industrial customers and medium-size corporate customers in Russia and to destinations within Russia and to Ukraine. Co.'s regional network encompasses 10 branch offices. Co. is a private participant in the transportation of scrap and ferrous metals and it has market positions in the transportation of construction materials and ores.
MMC Norilsk Nickel PJSC is a global producer of nickel, palladium, platinum and copper. Co. also produces by-products, such as cobalt, chromium, rhodium, silver, gold, iridium, ruthenium, selenium, tellurium and sulfur. Co. is involved in prospecting, exploration, extraction, refining and metallurgical processing of minerals, as well as in production, marketing and sale of base and precious metals. Co.'s production facilities are located in five countries: Russia, Australia, Botswana, Finland, and South Africa. Co.'s production units are integrated and include: the Polar Division (the Taimyr Peninsula); and the Kola Mining and Metallurgical Company (Kola MMC or the Kola Peninsula).
Polymetal International is the ultimate parent entity of Polymetal Group, a precious metals mining group operating in Russia, Kazakhstan and Armenia. Co. has five reportable segments: Magadan; Ural; Khabarovsk; Kazakhstan; and Armenia. Each segment is engaged in gold, silver or copper mining and related activities, including exploration, extraction, processing and reclamation.
OJSC OC Rosneft is a vertically-integrated Russian oil and gas company with upstream and downstream operations in each of Russia's oil-producing regions. Headquartered in Moscow, Co. operates ten oil and gas producing enterprises across Russia and is involved in over ten exploration projects. In addition to its upstream operations, Co. also owns two refineries, which have a combined capacity of 10 million tons per year, as well as four main oil export terminals and a nationwide network of over 600 service stations. Co.'s downstream operations consist of its crude oil export structure, refining operations and nationwide network of marketing subsidiaries.
Tatneft PJSC and its subsidiaries are engaged in crude oil exploration, development and production principally in the Republic of Tatarstan, Russia. Co. is a holding structure, which incorporates oil and gas production boards, crude oil and gas refining companies, as well as enterprises and servicing works selling the crude oil and also the products of crude oil and gas refining and petrochemical products. In addition to this, Co. is also participating in the banking and insurance activities. Co.'s operations are divided into the following main segments: Exploration and Production; Refining and Marketing; and Petrochemicals.
TCS Group Holding is a retail banking services group based in the Russian Federation. Co. is principally engaged in providing retail banking services in the Russian Federation through its subsidiaries, primarily Tinkoff Credit Systems. Co., through this subsidiary, fully licensed by the Central Bank of Russia and a member of the Deposit Insurance System, specializes in credit cards. Co. provides online retail financial services through a branchless operating platform. Co. also offers remote access to its financial products and services through its online banking as well as through mobile banking and high-volume call centers.
X5 Retail Group is a holding company. The main activity of Co. is the development and operation of grocery retail stores. Co. operates a retail chain of soft-discount, supermarket and hypermarket stores under the brand names "Pyaterochka", "Perekrestok" and "Karusel" in major population centres in Russia, including but not limited to Moscow, St. Petersburg, Nizhniy Novgorod, Rostov-on-Don, Kazan, Samara, Lipetsk, Chelyabinsk, Perm, Ekaterinburg and Kiev, Ukraine.
Sberbank CIB Investment Research is a research firm offering equity, fixed income, economics, and strategy research. It covers analysis on all aspects of Russia’s capital markets, issues and industries. The firm analyzes trends in Russia and combines local knowledge with a global perspective. It processes macroeconomic data, market and company-specific news, stock quotes and other information for providing research reports. The firm provides details and latest prices on the most traded names and most traded paper on all segments Russian market. In strategy research, it provides thematic research, tips and descriptions of the methodology used to evaluate companies.
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