Report
Andrew Keeley ...
  • Kirill Rogachev

Russian Real Estate - A Nice Play on Falling Rates

We believe residential real estate developers should be among the key beneficiaries of rapidly falling interest rates in Russia, as this further stimulates the development of the mortgage market, a key sales driver. In addition, residential real estate supply remains constrained due to the transition to the escrow scheme, which should support prices. Our favored exposure to the sector is through LSR Group (BUY, target price $2.80) rather than Etalon Group (HOLD, target price $2.10), as we think LSR has a clearer investment case and dividend outlook, as well as superior stock liquidity.
Underlyings
Etalon Group (GDR)

Etalon Group is a real estate development and construction company. Co.'s principal activity is residential development in Saint-Petersburg metropolitan area and Moscow metropolitan area, the Russian Federation. Co. has three reportable segments: Residential Development, which includes construction of residential real estate including flats, built-in premises and parking places; Constructions Services, which includes construction services for third parties and for internal purpose; and Other Operations, which include selling of construction materials, construction of stand-alone premises for commercial use and various services related to sale and servicing of premises.

LSR Group

Group LSR PJSC is involved real estate development in Saint Petersburg, Munich, Yekaterinburg and Moscow, prefabricated panel construction in Saint Petersburg, Moscow and Yekaterinburg, commercial real estate development in Saint Petersburg and Moscow and Yekaterinburg, the production of building materials at plants located in Russia and Ukraine, the extraction and processing of aggregates in Leningrad region, and the provision of construction services. These products and services are sold mainly in Russia. As of Dec 31 2015, Co. had five reportable segments: LSR.Building Materials; LSR. Construction; LSR.Project management; LSR.Cranes; and LSR.Real Estate.

LSR Group (GDR)

Provider
Sberbank
Sberbank

​Sberbank CIB Investment Research is a research firm offering equity, fixed income, economics, and strategy research. It covers analysis on all aspects of Russia’s capital markets, issues and industries. The firm analyzes trends in Russia and combines local knowledge with a global perspective. It processes macroeconomic data, market and company-specific news, stock quotes and other information for providing research reports. The firm provides details and latest prices on the most traded names and most traded paper on all segments Russian market. In strategy research, it provides thematic research, tips and descriptions of the methodology used to evaluate companies.

Analysts
Andrew Keeley

Kirill Rogachev

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