Russian Steel Producers - Steelmaking Margins Scenario Analysis
We see the current compression in global steel margins as unsustainable and expect a recovery to come on the back of a correction in bulk prices or a supply response by steelmakers. Meanwhile, the near record-high domestic premium for steel in Russia looks set to correct as the construction sector adjusts to new regulation. Under our base and bear cases, MMK and Evraz look relatively more expensive based on dividend yields, while Severstal and NLMK are more attractive thanks to their policies to distribute more than 100% of FCF as dividends. Using a probability-based valuation and target FCF and dividend yields, we project a fairly modest total return over the next 12 months of below 5% for Evraz and MMK and around 10% for Severstal and NLMK. We adjust our target prices slightly downward, but keep our HOLD recommendations for all four names.Evraz engages in the production and distribution of steel and related products and coal and iron ore mining. Co. also produces vanadium products. Co. has four segments: Steel, which includes production of steel and related products at all mills except for those in North America, and includes the extraction of vanadium ore and production of vanadium products, iron ore mining and enrichment and certain energy-generating companies; Steel, North America, which includes production of steel and related products in the U.S. and Canada; Coal, which includes coal mining and enrichment; and Other operations, which includes energy-generating companies, shipping and railway transportation companies.
Magnitogorskiy Metallurgicheskiy Kombinat PAO, formerly Magnitogorskiy metallurgicheskiy kombinat OAO, is a Russia-based company, active in the steel industry. Its main products are sinter, coke, iron, crude steel, rolled products and ore materials. The Company offers a wide range of products such as wire rod, rebars, square bars, strips, round bars, among others. It is also involved in the coal ore mining, processing of ore materials, sale of ferrous metal products and others. Magnitogorskiy metallurgicheskiy kombinat OAO operates as a supplier for such industries as: pipelines, vehicles, railway, construction and shipbuilding, among others. Its subsidiaries include Lys'venskaya Metallurgicheskaya Kompaniya OOO, among others. The Company operates domestically, as well as exports its products to the Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS) countries, Asia, the Middle East and Europe.
Novolipetsk Steel is a vertically integrated steel manufacturing and production group based in Russia. Co. specializes in the manufacturing of high-quality hot and cold rolled steel in a variety of grades and sizes. Co. is also engaged in production and sales of flat steel products including slabs, hot rolled and cold rolled sheet, electrical steel, galvanized steel, cold rolled sheet with polymeric coatings. In addition, Co.'s areas of manufacturing include sintering, coke production, blast furnace production, steel-making, hot and cold-rolled flat steel production, galvanized and prepainted steel production. Co. exports its products to 70 countries around the world.
PAO Severstal is an integrated Iron & Steel works company with a range of products: hot and cold rolled steel, roll-formed shapes and pipes, rolled sections, a large group of coke products and by-products. Co. also has various social responsibilities such as the operation and maintenance of sports complexes, holiday and recreational facilities and public housing. Co.'s operations are organized along three principal divisions: Severstal Russian Steel engaged in crude steel production; Severstal Resources engaged in the production of iron ore concentrate, pellets and coking coal; and Severstal International engaged in the production of high-quality flat-rolled products.
Sberbank CIB Investment Research is a research firm offering equity, fixed income, economics, and strategy research. It covers analysis on all aspects of Russia’s capital markets, issues and industries. The firm analyzes trends in Russia and combines local knowledge with a global perspective. It processes macroeconomic data, market and company-specific news, stock quotes and other information for providing research reports. The firm provides details and latest prices on the most traded names and most traded paper on all segments Russian market. In strategy research, it provides thematic research, tips and descriptions of the methodology used to evaluate companies.
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