Federal Reserve Preview - Fed to Cut in July and September
Since the FOMC meeting in June, when the Fed strongly hinted that it would begin to cut rates, US economic data has significantly outpaced expectations. Nonetheless, the Fed has stuck to its dovish rhetoric, which makes us think that a cut of 25 bps - but not more - on Wednesday is a done deal. The key question now is whether another 25 bp cut will come in September. We believe that it will, as it was not bad data that caused the Fed to turn more dovish, but rather the uncertainty over global economic growth and trade, which persists. We expect the Fed to signal on Wednesday another 25 bp cut in September. Since a cut in September is not fully priced in, this would cause the dollar to weaken.
Sberbank CIB Investment Research is a research firm offering equity, fixed income, economics, and strategy research. It covers analysis on all aspects of Russia’s capital markets, issues and industries. The firm analyzes trends in Russia and combines local knowledge with a global perspective. It processes macroeconomic data, market and company-specific news, stock quotes and other information for providing research reports. The firm provides details and latest prices on the most traded names and most traded paper on all segments Russian market. In strategy research, it provides thematic research, tips and descriptions of the methodology used to evaluate companies.
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