Sber CIB Trade Ideas - July 30, 2021
Despite the recent hiccup in the reflation trade, we continue to favor cyclical stocks. The reopening of the economy and an upswing in the global capex cycle should support commodity prices and hence Russian exporters. We open two new trade ideas in cyclical sectors, take profit on three and keep two ideas open. > Opening long Tatneft. We expect the company to post strong 1H21 results in August. The stock has underperformed peers after a surprise decision to cut the dividend payout, but at current levels the dividend yield looks competitive even at the reduced payout.> Opening long Globaltrans. A rapid recovery of freight rates is the key driver for the stock. We expect gondola rental rates to continue rising on the back of strong steel and coal export volumes and amid an impending deficit of rolling stock.> Closing short Moscow Exchange vs banks. We opened this trade idea in anticipation of earnings upgrades for banks while seeing few catalysts for MOEX. Now, with higher interest rates, we expect MOEX to perform more or less in line with the market, and we close the trade, which returned 5% since inception.> Closing Nornickel and PhosAgro. We take a hefty profit on both trades: Nornickel is up 33% since inception (more or less in line with the RTS) and PhosAgro 29% (+10% relative). Uncertainty over the future tax framework for the sector warrants some caution despite its strong fundamentals. > Keeping Gazprom open. This trade delivered an impressive 72% return since inception, outperforming the RTS Index by 38%. Nevertheless, we expect Gazprom to continue outperforming the market. Soaring gas prices should drive further earnings upgrades, while the anticipated completion of the Nord Stream 2 could become another catalyst for the stock.> Keeping X5 Retail open. Despite its strong operating and financial results, the stock underperformed the index heavily since we opened this trade. However, we still see company-specific catalysts that should support the stock, including a planned spinoff of the online business, which would crystallize its value.
PJSC Gazprom is a gas company based in Russia. Co.'s principal activity is the sale of gas. Co. is also involved in other types of activities which include leasing of assets, gas transportation and storage services, sale of gas condensate and refined products. Co. and its subsidiaries and associates operates gas pipelines systems in Russia. Co. is responsible for substantially all gas production and high pressure gas transportation in the Russian Federation. Co. is also a major exporter of gas to European countries. Co. is directly involved in exploration and drilling for hydrocarbons, production of gas and other hydrocarbons and domestic and export sale of gas and other hydrocarbons.
Globaltrans Investment is a rail transportation company in the Russian Federation. Co. is engaged in providing a wide range of railroad freight transport and logistics services. Co. provides rail freight transport and logistics services, as well as certain ancillary services to industrial customers and medium-size corporate customers in Russia and to destinations within Russia and to Ukraine. Co.'s regional network encompasses 10 branch offices. Co. is a private participant in the transportation of scrap and ferrous metals and it has market positions in the transportation of construction materials and ores.
MMC Norilsk Nickel PJSC is a global producer of nickel, palladium, platinum and copper. Co. also produces by-products, such as cobalt, chromium, rhodium, silver, gold, iridium, ruthenium, selenium, tellurium and sulfur. Co. is involved in prospecting, exploration, extraction, refining and metallurgical processing of minerals, as well as in production, marketing and sale of base and precious metals. Co.'s production facilities are located in five countries: Russia, Australia, Botswana, Finland, and South Africa. Co.'s production units are integrated and include: the Polar Division (the Taimyr Peninsula); and the Kola Mining and Metallurgical Company (Kola MMC or the Kola Peninsula).
Moskovskaya Birzha MMVB-RTS PAO. Moskovskaya Birzha MMVB-RTS PAO (MMVB-RTS OAO) is a Russia-based integrated stock exchange that provides electronic trade organization, clearing and settlements on trades, depository and information services. The Company provides trading and settlement services in such segments of the financial market as foreign exchange (FX) market, federal bonds market, market of derivative financial instruments, cash equities market, corporate and regional fixed income market, commodities market, as well as market for state and municipal orders. The Company was established as a result of the merger between MMVB ZAO and RTS OAO. It operates through six branches and three representative offices. As of February 27, 2013, the Company's major shareholder was the Central bank of the Russian Federation with a stake of 22.47%. In January 24, 2014, the Company sold its whole stake in MMVB-IT ZAO.
PhosAgro is a producer of phosphate-based fertilizers. As of Dec 31 2014, Co. had two segments: Phosphate-based products, which includes mainly production and distribution of ammophos, diammoniumphosphate, sodium tripoly phosphate and other phosphate based and complex (NPK) fertilisers on the factories located in Cherepovets, Balakovo and Volkhov, and production and distribution of apatite concentrate extracted from the apatite-nepheline ore, which is mined and processed in Kirovsk; and Nitrogen-based products,which includes mainly production and distribution of ammonia, ammonium nitrate and urea on the factory located in Cherepovets.
Tatneft PJSC and its subsidiaries are engaged in crude oil exploration, development and production principally in the Republic of Tatarstan, Russia. Co. is a holding structure, which incorporates oil and gas production boards, crude oil and gas refining companies, as well as enterprises and servicing works selling the crude oil and also the products of crude oil and gas refining and petrochemical products. In addition to this, Co. is also participating in the banking and insurance activities. Co.'s operations are divided into the following main segments: Exploration and Production; Refining and Marketing; and Petrochemicals.
X5 Retail Group is a holding company. The main activity of Co. is the development and operation of grocery retail stores. Co. operates a retail chain of soft-discount, supermarket and hypermarket stores under the brand names "Pyaterochka", "Perekrestok" and "Karusel" in major population centres in Russia, including but not limited to Moscow, St. Petersburg, Nizhniy Novgorod, Rostov-on-Don, Kazan, Samara, Lipetsk, Chelyabinsk, Perm, Ekaterinburg and Kiev, Ukraine.
Sberbank CIB Investment Research is a research firm offering equity, fixed income, economics, and strategy research. It covers analysis on all aspects of Russia’s capital markets, issues and industries. The firm analyzes trends in Russia and combines local knowledge with a global perspective. It processes macroeconomic data, market and company-specific news, stock quotes and other information for providing research reports. The firm provides details and latest prices on the most traded names and most traded paper on all segments Russian market. In strategy research, it provides thematic research, tips and descriptions of the methodology used to evaluate companies.
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