Russian Retail - Disrupted by Specialists
The macroeconomic backdrop is currently unsupportive for households, as it is redirecting wealth to the state budget and exporters. Meanwhile, specialized retailers are disrupting the industry and competitive pressure is at a peak. We see some of these headwinds abating in 2019. Plus, the sector is cheap. But for the stocks to re-rate, the market needs margins to stabilize and LFLs to recover. We cut our aggregate EBITDA projection for 2018-19 by 5%. With a weaker ruble assumption, our target prices are cut by 23% on average. X5 Retail Group is our top pick, and Lenta is also a BUY. We reiterate our HOLD on Magnit and SELL on O'Key.Lenta is a hypermarket group based in Russia. Co. operates 87 hypermarkets in 50 cities across Russia and 16 supermarkets in the Moscow region with a total of approximately 571,328 sq.m. of selling space. Co. also operates four distribution centers for hypermarkets and one for supermarkets. operates three hypermarket formats: Standard, typically with approximately 7,000 sq. m. of selling space (smaller than many Western European hypermarkets) and 24,000 stock keeping unit (SKUs); Compact, typically with approximately 5,000 sq. m. of selling space and 20,300 SKUs; and Supercompact, typically with approximately 3,000 sq. m. of selling space and 15,000 SKUs.
Magnit is a holding company. Through its subsidiaries, Co. operates in the retail and distribution of consumer goods under the Magnit name. Co.'s retail operations are operated through convenience stores, cosmetic stores, hypermarkets and other. Most of its stores are located in the Southern, Central and Volga regions. Co. also operates stores in the North-Western, North-Caucasian, Urals and Siberian regions. As of Dec. 31 2014, Co.'s stores chain consisted of 9,711 stores: 8,344 convenience stores, 190 hypermarkets, 97 Magnit Family stores and 1,080 drogerie stores in 2,108 cities and towns throughout the Russian Federation.
O'key Group is a Russian retailer. Co.'s principal business activity is operation of retail chain in Russia under brand name O'KEY. Co. provides customers with fresh produce (fresh foods and delicatessen products) and non-food goods (cosmetics, clothing, shoes, household cleaning products, domestic appliances, toys, sports and fitness products, etc.). Co.'s stores follow two formats: hypermarkets and supermarkets. Co. manages approximately 71 stores (42 hypermarkets and 29 supermarkets) across North Western, Southern, Central, Urals and Siberian regions.
X5 Retail Group is a holding company. The main activity of Co. is the development and operation of grocery retail stores. Co. operates a retail chain of soft-discount, supermarket and hypermarket stores under the brand names "Pyaterochka", "Perekrestok" and "Karusel" in major population centres in Russia, including but not limited to Moscow, St. Petersburg, Nizhniy Novgorod, Rostov-on-Don, Kazan, Samara, Lipetsk, Chelyabinsk, Perm, Ekaterinburg and Kiev, Ukraine.
Sberbank CIB Investment Research is a research firm offering equity, fixed income, economics, and strategy research. It covers analysis on all aspects of Russia’s capital markets, issues and industries. The firm analyzes trends in Russia and combines local knowledge with a global perspective. It processes macroeconomic data, market and company-specific news, stock quotes and other information for providing research reports. The firm provides details and latest prices on the most traded names and most traded paper on all segments Russian market. In strategy research, it provides thematic research, tips and descriptions of the methodology used to evaluate companies.
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