Russian Retail - Mixed 2Q18 Trends, but the Sector Is Cheap
Russia's listed food retailers will start to report 2Q18 results from July 19. Resumed deflation and consumer pessimism are likely to push LFLs lower Q-o-Q. Stabilizing promo activity should support gross margins, though opex inflation outpacing LFL will generally mean low EBITDA margins. We expect a neutral reaction to the operating results and a moderately positive reaction to the financials. Our top picks are X5 Retail Group and Lenta. The sector's next year EV/EBITDA of 5.1 represents an all-time low. We think this provides a margin of safety should the sector witness heightened competition. Given the high uncertainty, the market is unlikely to take risk and is more likely to react to triggers, in our view.Lenta is a hypermarket group based in Russia. Co. operates 87 hypermarkets in 50 cities across Russia and 16 supermarkets in the Moscow region with a total of approximately 571,328 sq.m. of selling space. Co. also operates four distribution centers for hypermarkets and one for supermarkets. operates three hypermarket formats: Standard, typically with approximately 7,000 sq. m. of selling space (smaller than many Western European hypermarkets) and 24,000 stock keeping unit (SKUs); Compact, typically with approximately 5,000 sq. m. of selling space and 20,300 SKUs; and Supercompact, typically with approximately 3,000 sq. m. of selling space and 15,000 SKUs.
Magnit is a holding company. Through its subsidiaries, Co. operates in the retail and distribution of consumer goods under the Magnit name. Co.'s retail operations are operated through convenience stores, cosmetic stores, hypermarkets and other. Most of its stores are located in the Southern, Central and Volga regions. Co. also operates stores in the North-Western, North-Caucasian, Urals and Siberian regions. As of Dec. 31 2014, Co.'s stores chain consisted of 9,711 stores: 8,344 convenience stores, 190 hypermarkets, 97 Magnit Family stores and 1,080 drogerie stores in 2,108 cities and towns throughout the Russian Federation.
O'key Group is a Russian retailer. Co.'s principal business activity is operation of retail chain in Russia under brand name O'KEY. Co. provides customers with fresh produce (fresh foods and delicatessen products) and non-food goods (cosmetics, clothing, shoes, household cleaning products, domestic appliances, toys, sports and fitness products, etc.). Co.'s stores follow two formats: hypermarkets and supermarkets. Co. manages approximately 71 stores (42 hypermarkets and 29 supermarkets) across North Western, Southern, Central, Urals and Siberian regions.
X5 Retail Group is a holding company. The main activity of Co. is the development and operation of grocery retail stores. Co. operates a retail chain of soft-discount, supermarket and hypermarket stores under the brand names "Pyaterochka", "Perekrestok" and "Karusel" in major population centres in Russia, including but not limited to Moscow, St. Petersburg, Nizhniy Novgorod, Rostov-on-Don, Kazan, Samara, Lipetsk, Chelyabinsk, Perm, Ekaterinburg and Kiev, Ukraine.
Sberbank CIB Investment Research is a research firm offering equity, fixed income, economics, and strategy research. It covers analysis on all aspects of Russia’s capital markets, issues and industries. The firm analyzes trends in Russia and combines local knowledge with a global perspective. It processes macroeconomic data, market and company-specific news, stock quotes and other information for providing research reports. The firm provides details and latest prices on the most traded names and most traded paper on all segments Russian market. In strategy research, it provides thematic research, tips and descriptions of the methodology used to evaluate companies.
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