MSCI Russia - Potential Index Effects From Today's Gazprom Offering
Gazprom this morning announced a secondary offering of some 850.6 mln shares via Gazprom Gazoraspredelenie, equivalent to 3.6% of shares outstanding. This follows the offering of a 2.9% stake in July, which we discussed in our August MSCI preview. Should MSCI count both the July and November offerings toward the free float, this would raise the stock's free float to some 49.7% on our estimates, which we think would lead MSCI to raise its free-float coefficient for Gazprom from 0.45 to 0.50, most likely as part of the May 2020 semiannual rebalancing. This would drive up to $140 mln into Gazprom from passive MSCI EM, EM IMI and Russia trackers alone. Were all index providers to follow suit, we would expect up to $460 mln in passive inflow for the stock, equivalent to 2.2 times the company's combined 100d ADT.
Sberbank CIB Investment Research is a research firm offering equity, fixed income, economics, and strategy research. It covers analysis on all aspects of Russia’s capital markets, issues and industries. The firm analyzes trends in Russia and combines local knowledge with a global perspective. It processes macroeconomic data, market and company-specific news, stock quotes and other information for providing research reports. The firm provides details and latest prices on the most traded names and most traded paper on all segments Russian market. In strategy research, it provides thematic research, tips and descriptions of the methodology used to evaluate companies.
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