Multi-Asset Strategy - Set of "What If" Scenarios for 2020

Analyzing the possible scenarios of how the global economic slowdown could affect Russia, we have focused to a significant degree on the trade dispute between the US and China. Here our view continues to be that the standoff is likely to persist well into next year and that a swift resolution is unlikely. Our base case is thus close to the current status quo, characterized by increased trade restrictions and subpar global growth rates. Given that the range of possible alternatives to our base case is skewed to the downside, our other two scenarios consider varying degrees of deterioration in the state of the global economy. In these scenarios, we would expect the pressure on Russia's economy to be significant yet more moderate than a decade ago during the financial crisis.