Sberbank - RUSAL (RUALR) ... Долговые рынки сегодня - 18 декабря 2020

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Sberbank

Alexander Golinsky ...

Alexey Kirichok
Alisa Zakirova
Anton Stroutchenevski
Artem Vinogradov
Ekaterina Sidorova
Irina Lapshina
Nikolay Minko
Research Team
Rodion Lomivorotov
Vladimir Lezhnev

Долговые рынки сегодня - 18 декабря 2020

РЫНОК ВНЕШНЕГО ДОЛГА СТРАН СНГНа рынке российских суверенных бумаг продол-жался рост цен в долгосрочном сегменте. В част-ности, по итогам вчерашних торгов сильнее всего - на 0,6 п. п. - подорожал выпуск Россия-43.ГОСУДАРСТВЕННЫЕ ЦЕННЫЕ БУМАГИВ четверг на рынке ОФЗ наблюдался приток нерезидентов в длинный сегмент кривой. В роли продавцов в основном выступали локальные инвесторы, которые на фоне ускорения инфляции в последнее время больше ориентированы на инфляционные линкеры (см. нашу новую торговую рекомендацию во вчерашнем обзоре "Долговые рынки сего-дня"). По итогам дня доходность долгосрочных выпусков упала на 2 б. п., а среднесрочных - не изменилась. Обороты составили 20 млрд руб.НОВОСТИ> По информации Bloomberg, Олег Дерипаска "осуществлял контроль" над РУСАЛ в 2020 году> ВВП Белоруссии за 11М20 сократился на 0,9%

18/12/2020 16 RU

Underlyings

RUSAL

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United Company RUSAL international PJSC

United Company Rusal is a producer of aluminium and alloys. Co.'s production chain include bauxite and nepheline ore mines, alumina refineries, aluminium smelters and casting houses, foil mills and packaging production centres. Co. operates in four reportable segments: Aluminium, which is involved in the production and sale of primary aluminium; Alumina, which involved in the mining and refining of bauxite into alumina and the sale of alumina; Energy, which include the mining and sale of coal and the generation and transmission of electricity; Mining and Metals, which includes the equity investment in Co.'s joint venture, PJSC MMC Norilsk Nickel.

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JE00B5BCW814 Jersey

Provider

Sberbank

Sberbank CIB Investment Research is a research firm offering equity, fixed income, economics, and strategy research. It covers analysis on all aspects of Russia’s capital markets, issues and industries. The firm analyzes trends in Russia and combines local knowledge with a global perspective. It processes macroeconomic data, market and company-specific news, stock quotes and other information for providing research reports. The firm provides details and latest prices on the most traded names and most traded paper on all segments Russian market. In strategy research, it provides thematic research, tips and descriptions of the methodology used to evaluate companies.

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Analysts

Alexander Golinsky

Alexey Kirichok

Alisa Zakirova

Anton Stroutchenevski

Artem Vinogradov

Ekaterina Sidorova

Irina Lapshina

Nikolay Minko

Research Team

Rodion Lomivorotov

Vladimir Lezhnev

Other Reports on these Companies

Sberbank

Долговые рынки сегодня - 10 февраля 2022. Операционные результаты РУСАЛа и Евроторга за весь 2021 год; Инфляция в России в январе ускорилась до 8,7%; Выпуск в базовых отраслях РФ вырос в декабре и 4К21

РЫНОК ВНЕШНЕГО ДОЛГА СТРАН СНГВчера снижение доходности гособлигаций США привело к ралли на рынках суверенного долга развивающихся экономик. Россия выглядела гораздо лучше прочих развивающихся рынков, т. к. геополитический фон в последние дни значительно улучшился. Больше всего выросли котировки трех индикативных выпусков: Россия-47 (плюс 1,7 п. п.), Россия-28 (плюс 1,6 п. п.) и Россия-35 (плюс 1,3 п. п.).ГОСУДАРСТВЕННЫЕ ЦЕННЫЕ БУМАГИДоходности ОФЗ вчера снизились на 2-3 б. п. благодаря дальнейшему укреплению рубля и тому, что результаты аукциона по размещению 14-летнего выпуска с фиксированны...

February 10, 2022 February 10, 2022 1 RU

Sberbank

Debt Markets Today - February 10, 2022. Russian Current Account, Inflation, Basic Sector Output; OFZ Auctions Review; Rusal, Eurotorg Operating Results

CIS EUROBOND MARKETA pullback in UST yields translated into a strong rally across EM sovereign Eurobonds yesterday, and Russia outperformed EM peers as geopolitical sentiment has considerably improved over the last few days. The three benchmark issues showed the biggest gains, the Russia 47 up 1.7 pp, the Russia 28 up 1.6 pp and the Russia 35 up 1.3 pp. GOVERNMENT DEBTOFZs fell 2-3 bps in yield yesterday thanks to further ruble appreciation and better than expected auction results for the 14y nominal paper. Trading volumes on the Moscow Exchange picked up to R30 bln, with R25 bln changing hand...

February 10, 2022 February 10, 2022 1 EN

Sberbank

Debt Markets Today - October 27, 2021. OFZ Auction Preview, Rusal Trading Update

CIS EUROBOND MARKETUkraine was the main mover among FSU sovereign Eurobonds, the issues dropping 2-8 bps in yield. The Belarusian curve nudged down 1-7 bps yield-wise. Meanwhile, the Belarus 26 and 27 fared the strongest, appreciating 0.2-0.4 pp in price. Russia remained stuck in a tight trading range.GOVERNMENT DEBTYesterday, the OFZ market once again opened with yields moving higher by over 10 bps, although the losses were subsequently partially pared due to the lack of new selling interest from nonresidents. Also helping was the Finance Ministry's decision to not offer OFZs with a fixed cou...

October 27, 2021 October 27, 2021 43 EN

Russian Consumer - Unemployment and Income: The Outlook for 2022

In its modern history, Russia has not suffered any major spikes in joblessness. Its unemployment rate has ranged from between 4.8% and 8.3% since 2005 (versus 3.6-9.9% in the US for the same period). However, considering the sectors currently affected and companies scaling down operations in Russia, we see 1.1 mln out of the total 71 mln jobs at risk. But because this comes amid a labor shortage, which emerged in late 2021, companies are aiming to hold on to personnel, while the government is announcing extra social support measures. In a conservative scenario, the unemployment rate could go u...

March 24, 2022 March 24, 2022 1 EN

Andrew Keeley ... (+3)

Andrew Keeley
Arthur Cherkesov
Ekaterina Sidorova

Russian Banks - What We Know at This Stage

In this note, we sum up a few thoughts on the current situation for Russia's banks.> Immediate pressure weathered... Since the initial brief depositor panic in late February, deposit flows have stabilized and even turned into net inflows as banks have hiked short-term deposit rates to around 20%, in line with the key rate.> ... and the CBR has experience of crises. The CBR is well versed in supporting the banking system through crises and has already made important moves in providing liquidity and capital forbearance. The banking sector recapitalization that we saw in 2008-09 and 2014-15 is no...

March 24, 2022 March 24, 2022 1 EN

Alisa Zakirova ... (+3)

Alisa Zakirova
Igor Rapokhin
Yuri Popov

Валютный рынок и процентные ставки - 24 марта 2022. После резкого укрепления рубль возьмет паузу

В центре внимания сегодня будут саммиты ЕС и НАТО. В частности, на них могут прокомментировать предложения России по расчетам за газ. Не исключено, что риторика в отношении России сегодня ужесточится. В этих условиях укрепление рубля вряд ли продолжится, и он останется около 96 за доллар.

March 24, 2022 March 24, 2022 1 RU

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Долговые рынки сегодня - 18 декабря 2020

Debt Markets Today - February 10, 2022. Russian Current Account, Inflation, Basic Sector Output; OFZ Auctions Review; Rusal, Eurotorg Operating Results

Debt Markets Today - October 27, 2021. OFZ Auction Preview, Rusal Trading Update

Russian Consumer - Unemployment and Income: The Outlook for 2022

Russian Banks - What We Know at This Stage

Валютный рынок и процентные ставки - 24 марта 2022. После резкого укрепления рубль возьмет паузу

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