Russia FX Beat - July 10, 2017

> Today's focus. Theresa May to present the Great Repeal Bill.
> Global trigger: Risk-on. Friday's US nonfarm payrolls data for June was mixed for the dollar and positive for risk sentiment. Nonfarm payrolls rose 222,000 (versus the 178,000 consensus), while unemployment remained low and average hourly earnings continued to be range-bound. The outcome of the G20 meeting was largely viewed as negative for the US in relation to global issues such as trade and North Korea but positive on a potential improvement in relations with Russia, as there is now greater chance that both countries can overcome the crisis in bilateral relations.
Today, UK Prime Minister May will present the Great Repeal Bill to parliament that will cancel the European Union's legal supremacy in the UK by converting all EU requirements into British law as soon as Britain exits the bloc. Elsewhere, ECB President Draghi will participate in a Eurogroup meeting.
Besides speeches from prominent Fed members, this week will see Janet Yellen's semi-annual two-day testimony on monetary policy and economic issues (Wednesday and Thursday).
> Bottom line: EUR/USD is approaching 1.1430-1.1445 resistance levels.
> Regional trigger: Lack of negative FX flow. Today is the deadline for Gazprom Neft's annual dividend payments (R50.6 bln), which will result in an estimated $0.2bln of FX selling and no FX conversion to follow. Following the conversion of Sberbank and Norilsk Nickel dividends to FX by foreign shareholders last week, we expect a slight breather in annual dividend-related FX buying over the next two weeks. Hence for now, the ruble will be influenced more by oil price volatility. Firmer support for the ruble could come next week with the tax payments and large dividend payments by exporters.
Brent broke through the $47.09-47.10/bbl support level (Fibonacci 76.4% and 14d MA) on supply glut concerns. Some support could come from talks on Libya and Nigeria limiting output, pushing the price back to $47.09/bbl. USD/RUB faces the previous resistance levels of 60.46 and 60.52 and support at the 200d MA.
> Bottom line. With oil rebounding just above $47/bbl and a lack of negative FX flow related to the conversion of dividend payments in to FX, USD/RUB could settle at into a lower range at 59.8-60.30, subject to oil volatility.