Russia FX Beat - June 27, 2017

> Today's focus. Yellen to speak as hike doubts grow.
> Global trigger: Awaiting Yellen. EUR/USD traded in a narrow range yesterday, with soft US durable goods data bringing any positive dollar sentiment to a sudden halt. This maintained the current run of lackluster US data that, together with quite soft inflation dynamics, raises genuine questions over how and when the Fed will raise rates again this year, as it has long forecast.
Certainly its next meeting on July 26 should be a non-event, with rates held at 1.25%. In this vein, scheduled comments from Fed Chair Yellen will be today's key event. Yellen is scheduled to hold a discussion at 20:00 Moscow time, including an audience Q&A. With markets not even pricing in another hike before year end as a 50% chance, if Yellen clearly restates the likelihood of another hike before long, this should support the dollar.
Prior to Yellen, Fed voter Harker (18:00) also speaks, while the US sees consumer confidence at 17:00. In the Eurozone, the focus will be on a speech by ECB President Draghi at 11:00. Similar to the Fed's next meeting, the ECB's July 20 meeting is set to be a non-event.
> Bottom line. Should Yellen be upbeat with her comments later today, this risks pressuring EUR/USD toward 1.1150.
> Regional trigger: Tax support. Oil price moves continue to be a key driver of global market sentiment, with the 20% slump over the past month contributing to concern over disinflation risks in the likes of the US and Eurozone.
Oil prices are of course also a major determinant of the ruble. On this front, the near-term outlook has improved. Consecutive but small daily gains in Brent have provided a considerably more constructive immediate outlook, which would be cemented if it can close above $46/bbl today.
In addition to the more positive impulse from oil, the ruble also benefited yesterday from very active purchasing from local companies as the next and final major tax deadline falls on Thursday.
Looking ahead to next week, there is the possibility of a face-to-face meeting between Presidents Putin and Trump on the sidelines of a G20 summit on July 7-8.
> Bottom line. We are looking for USD/RUB to trade in the 58.60-58.80 range today.