Russia FX/Rates Snapshot - April 17, 2020
Today's key event will be CBR Governor Elvira Nabiullina's press conference at 11:00 Moscow time. If she signals that a rate cut next Friday is likely and if foreigners start buying OFZs amid still-in-place global optimism then we think the ruble could advance to 73 and possibly even below. However, we think this will prove temporary. Until a vaccine emerges, the removal of quarantines does not mean a return to normal life - secondary outbreaks could emerge. Also, yesterday a strong uptick in new infections was observed even in countries that had recently been on a downtrend. Finally, oil prices will likely continue falling due to oversupply in the market. We think these factors will create a negative backdrop for the ruble next week.
Sberbank CIB Investment Research is a research firm offering equity, fixed income, economics, and strategy research. It covers analysis on all aspects of Russia’s capital markets, issues and industries. The firm analyzes trends in Russia and combines local knowledge with a global perspective. It processes macroeconomic data, market and company-specific news, stock quotes and other information for providing research reports. The firm provides details and latest prices on the most traded names and most traded paper on all segments Russian market. In strategy research, it provides thematic research, tips and descriptions of the methodology used to evaluate companies.
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