Russia FX/Rates Snapshot - April 28, 2020
We expect the ruble to extend its losses and reach 75.3 versus the dollar today, and then perhaps move to 77 in the coming days. The local currency will lose support from tax flows, while the negative factors are likely to intensify. For instance, June Brent futures are nearing expiration, which could ratchet up the pressure on global oil prices, much as we saw last week in the lead-up to the expiration of June WTI futures, when prices dipped deep into negative territory. There are also risks of a sharp drop in the Turkish lira (USD/TRY is close to 7, a key resistance level) and the Brazilian real (due to a burgeoning political crisis). We note that both Turkey and Brazil are still struggling to contain the spread of the coronavirus.
Sberbank CIB Investment Research is a research firm offering equity, fixed income, economics, and strategy research. It covers analysis on all aspects of Russia’s capital markets, issues and industries. The firm analyzes trends in Russia and combines local knowledge with a global perspective. It processes macroeconomic data, market and company-specific news, stock quotes and other information for providing research reports. The firm provides details and latest prices on the most traded names and most traded paper on all segments Russian market. In strategy research, it provides thematic research, tips and descriptions of the methodology used to evaluate companies.
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