Russia FX/Rates Snapshot - August 13, 2018
We think the ruble should fare better than its EM peers even despite the sanctions risk, as Russia has a stronger current account and lower external debt. Moreover, the CBR has reportedly ceased FX purchases, and we do not expect it to resume them over the short run. Also, the USD/RUB spot premium over the CBR's fixing is again high at about R1.5. So exporters should keep FX sales elevated. We think the ruble could firm to 68 this morning given that the recent drop was likely overdone. However, there is a risk that the Turkish authorities could fail to calm investors, as we think an interest rate hike, tight fiscal policy and perhaps a request for IMF assistance are required.
Sberbank CIB Investment Research is a research firm offering equity, fixed income, economics, and strategy research. It covers analysis on all aspects of Russia’s capital markets, issues and industries. The firm analyzes trends in Russia and combines local knowledge with a global perspective. It processes macroeconomic data, market and company-specific news, stock quotes and other information for providing research reports. The firm provides details and latest prices on the most traded names and most traded paper on all segments Russian market. In strategy research, it provides thematic research, tips and descriptions of the methodology used to evaluate companies.
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