Russia FX/Rates Snapshot - August 13, 2019
This morning, risk aversion remained in place and EM currencies fell once again. USD/RUB returned to a key resistance area of 65.6 65.7. If it breaks above this level, we would expect it to settle above 66, making it much harder to return below 65 later this month, even if the Fed proves to be very dovish. Today, we think the ruble is likely to remain resilient and not break this level, as this morning's EM currency shift was much less sharp than yesterday's one. Later today or tomorrow, some $1.5 bln in FX purchases related to Gazprom's dividend payments for its depositary receipts could take place. This is quite a significant sum, so if risk-off continues and EM currencies continue to retreat, this could finally be enough for USD/RUB to break above this strong resistance level.
Sberbank CIB Investment Research is a research firm offering equity, fixed income, economics, and strategy research. It covers analysis on all aspects of Russia’s capital markets, issues and industries. The firm analyzes trends in Russia and combines local knowledge with a global perspective. It processes macroeconomic data, market and company-specific news, stock quotes and other information for providing research reports. The firm provides details and latest prices on the most traded names and most traded paper on all segments Russian market. In strategy research, it provides thematic research, tips and descriptions of the methodology used to evaluate companies.
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