Russia FX/Rates Snapshot - December 11, 2019
The Fed decision is the focus for markets today. Given the recent very strong US data, especially the upbeat 3Q19 GDP print and official jobs report for November, we expect the Fed to keep rates unchanged after 75 bps worth of cuts over the last three meetings. We think it will signal patience for at least a year. It could remove any hint about potential further cuts from the press release while restoring the phrase about being patient. Against this backdrop, pricing of one rate cut next year could disappear and US rates and yields could edge mildly higher. Moreover, we note the risk that the dot plot could show that more than half of FOMC members are for one hike next year, probably toward year-end. If this happens, the dollar could rise globally. This comes amid a surprising bout of weakness in the dollar in recent days, when it gave up all the gains made last Friday on the strong jobs report.
Sberbank CIB Investment Research is a research firm offering equity, fixed income, economics, and strategy research. It covers analysis on all aspects of Russia’s capital markets, issues and industries. The firm analyzes trends in Russia and combines local knowledge with a global perspective. It processes macroeconomic data, market and company-specific news, stock quotes and other information for providing research reports. The firm provides details and latest prices on the most traded names and most traded paper on all segments Russian market. In strategy research, it provides thematic research, tips and descriptions of the methodology used to evaluate companies.
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