Russia FX/Rates Snapshot - December 19, 2018
For the ruble, oil will be a crucial factor. At 18:30 Moscow time, the EIA will release its weekly US oil inventory report. If it shows significant stockpile draws, we could see Brent rebound to $58/bbl. This could allow the ruble to recover from its recent losses and return to 66.5. However, the outlook for the ruble through year-end will worsen unless oil prices recover sustainably. It could start to look especially bad if oil prices further decline. Last month, a slump in oil during the tax period made exporters reluctant to increase their FX selling, and we could see something similar this time around. In this case, a return to below 67 would most likely prove short-lived, and USD/RUB could even target 68, especially If geopolitical risks remain elevated.
Sberbank CIB Investment Research is a research firm offering equity, fixed income, economics, and strategy research. It covers analysis on all aspects of Russia’s capital markets, issues and industries. The firm analyzes trends in Russia and combines local knowledge with a global perspective. It processes macroeconomic data, market and company-specific news, stock quotes and other information for providing research reports. The firm provides details and latest prices on the most traded names and most traded paper on all segments Russian market. In strategy research, it provides thematic research, tips and descriptions of the methodology used to evaluate companies.
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