Russia FX/Rates Snapshot - July 29, 2019
The ruble is once again under pressure this morning, as foreigners are likely taking profits after the CBR decision. With the Fed decision coming up on Wednesday, this will likely continue. However, we think the ruble has potential to recover due to exporters, who may increase their FX selling today due to the 40 kopeck premium of the spot USD/RUB over the CBR fixing, and still high payments due - R550 bln in profit taxes today and R393 bln and R82 bln in dividends from Gazprom and Surgutneftegaz, respectively, on Wednesday. Given the quite high turnover on the Moscow Exchange, exporters have probably started selling FX, and given the very high payments upcoming, we expect them to outweigh the nonresident bid for FX, thus helping the ruble recover, in our view.
Sberbank CIB Investment Research is a research firm offering equity, fixed income, economics, and strategy research. It covers analysis on all aspects of Russia’s capital markets, issues and industries. The firm analyzes trends in Russia and combines local knowledge with a global perspective. It processes macroeconomic data, market and company-specific news, stock quotes and other information for providing research reports. The firm provides details and latest prices on the most traded names and most traded paper on all segments Russian market. In strategy research, it provides thematic research, tips and descriptions of the methodology used to evaluate companies.
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