Russia FX/Rates Snapshot - June 15, 2018
We expect the CBR to cut the key rate by 25 bps today given the currently low inflation. However, it may opt for a hawkish statement, saying that monetary policy has become inflation-neutral or hinting that it will become neutral in 3Q18. This could be the case given the upcoming VAT increase in 2019, which could push inflation above 4%. With such a hawkish statement, rates up to 3m would fall, pricing in the fact of the cut, while 6-12m rates would rise, pricing in fewer rate cuts next year.
Sberbank CIB Investment Research is a research firm offering equity, fixed income, economics, and strategy research. It covers analysis on all aspects of Russia’s capital markets, issues and industries. The firm analyzes trends in Russia and combines local knowledge with a global perspective. It processes macroeconomic data, market and company-specific news, stock quotes and other information for providing research reports. The firm provides details and latest prices on the most traded names and most traded paper on all segments Russian market. In strategy research, it provides thematic research, tips and descriptions of the methodology used to evaluate companies.
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