Russia FX/Rates Snapshot - June 17, 2021. Better Geopolitical Backdrop Might Neutralize Global Dollar Strengthening
We think the uptrend in the dollar will continue given that the market is now shifting its expectations toward tighter policy from the Fed. The yield on the 2y US Treasury has pushed above 0.2% (its highest level in a year). One 25 bp rate hike is now priced in by the end of 2022 and nearly two hikes are priced in for 2023. We think EUR/USD could weaken to 1.197. However, given that the geopolitical backdrop may improve somewhat following the summit - particularly if concrete steps toward each other ensue or new constructive comments emerge - the ruble will find support and might be able to stabilize around 72.3.
Sberbank CIB Investment Research is a research firm offering equity, fixed income, economics, and strategy research. It covers analysis on all aspects of Russia’s capital markets, issues and industries. The firm analyzes trends in Russia and combines local knowledge with a global perspective. It processes macroeconomic data, market and company-specific news, stock quotes and other information for providing research reports. The firm provides details and latest prices on the most traded names and most traded paper on all segments Russian market. In strategy research, it provides thematic research, tips and descriptions of the methodology used to evaluate companies.
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