Russia FX/Rates Snapshot - June 19, 2019
This morning, risk sentiment is fairly upbeat, and the ruble is firming again, likely due to foreign demand for OFZ. USD/RUB has broken below the important support level of 64.2, clearing the way to the next one at 63.6. We would not rule out the ruble gaining 0.5% or more intraday, but we expect it to retrace in the evening and reach 64.5, as the Fed will likely upset markets, which are pricing three cuts this year. The Fed will announce its decision at 21:00 Moscow time, and Powell will conduct his press conference at 21:30. We think the Fed will signal further patience, as recent US data has not been bad enough to justify a cut, while trade tensions have not yet evolved in such a way to justify one either. We therefore expect the greenback to advance globally this evening and US short-term rates to rise.
Sberbank CIB Investment Research is a research firm offering equity, fixed income, economics, and strategy research. It covers analysis on all aspects of Russia’s capital markets, issues and industries. The firm analyzes trends in Russia and combines local knowledge with a global perspective. It processes macroeconomic data, market and company-specific news, stock quotes and other information for providing research reports. The firm provides details and latest prices on the most traded names and most traded paper on all segments Russian market. In strategy research, it provides thematic research, tips and descriptions of the methodology used to evaluate companies.
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