Russia FX/Rates Snapshot - March 20, 2019
We expect the Fed to project one rate hike this year or possibly none, down from two in December. The latest market quotes suggest an almost zero probability of hikes this year, but they have typically underpriced hikes on a one-year horizon by 25 bps (the increment for Fed rate changes). If the dot plot shows no hikes in 2019, it could be a dovish surprise for the market, which would likely result in dollar depreciation. Given this, the ruble may fall below 64 this evening. The ruble should also be supported by rather high foreign demand for OFZs at today's auctions.
Sberbank CIB Investment Research is a research firm offering equity, fixed income, economics, and strategy research. It covers analysis on all aspects of Russia’s capital markets, issues and industries. The firm analyzes trends in Russia and combines local knowledge with a global perspective. It processes macroeconomic data, market and company-specific news, stock quotes and other information for providing research reports. The firm provides details and latest prices on the most traded names and most traded paper on all segments Russian market. In strategy research, it provides thematic research, tips and descriptions of the methodology used to evaluate companies.
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