Russia FX/Rates Snapshot - March 22, 2019
The CBR will announce a rate decision at 13:30, followed by Governor Nabiullina's press conference at 15:00. We think she may be asked whether the CBR will increase additional FX purchases given recent ruble appreciation and the overall environment being friendly for Russian assets. We expect her to reiterate that the bank does not plan on doing that, which would support the ruble. Previously, we thought the ruble had limited potential to appreciate below 65, expecting the CBR in favorable conditions to increase additional FX purchases to sooner make up the $31 bln forgone last year. We still consider such a move logical for the CBR, and note the downside risk if this time Nabiullina says the bank will consider it. If that happens, the ruble could revert and break above 64.
Sberbank CIB Investment Research is a research firm offering equity, fixed income, economics, and strategy research. It covers analysis on all aspects of Russia’s capital markets, issues and industries. The firm analyzes trends in Russia and combines local knowledge with a global perspective. It processes macroeconomic data, market and company-specific news, stock quotes and other information for providing research reports. The firm provides details and latest prices on the most traded names and most traded paper on all segments Russian market. In strategy research, it provides thematic research, tips and descriptions of the methodology used to evaluate companies.
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