Russia FX/Rates Snapshot - March 7, 2019
Today, investors await the ECB's monetary policy meeting. We expect the ECB to significantly downgrade its projections given recent signs of economic weakness. In December, the bank projected 2019 GDP growth of 1.7% and core inflation of 1.4%, which appear to be too high given the current conditions. Against this backdrop, the ECB is likely to amend its forward guidance and delay hikes to 2020 or later while announcing a resumption of the TLTRO program. Hence, ECB dovishness appears set to pressure the euro today, and we see EUR/USD dipping to 1.125, while tomorrow's US labor report will likely support the greenback given that yesterday's preliminary ADP numbers were quite strong. The ruble will likely hover near 66 but could weaken slightly in the evening on profit taking ahead of the long weekend in Russia.
Sberbank CIB Investment Research is a research firm offering equity, fixed income, economics, and strategy research. It covers analysis on all aspects of Russia’s capital markets, issues and industries. The firm analyzes trends in Russia and combines local knowledge with a global perspective. It processes macroeconomic data, market and company-specific news, stock quotes and other information for providing research reports. The firm provides details and latest prices on the most traded names and most traded paper on all segments Russian market. In strategy research, it provides thematic research, tips and descriptions of the methodology used to evaluate companies.
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