Russia FX/Rates Snapshot - October 30, 2019
This morning, the ruble is mildly appreciating, thus catching up with peers. However, we expect it to depreciate later in the day and break above 64. First, important US data - the ADP employment change for October and first estimate of 3Q19 GDP growth - will be published midday. Both are likely to be downbeat, the ADP figure due to the recent GM strike and GDP due to the overall downbeat data in recent months. So, bad data could spur risk aversion, which later in the evening could intensify due to the Fed, which we expect to cut rates by 25 bps but disappoint markets by not signaling that further cuts are imminent. Moreover, there is a risk, albeit low, that the phrase that it will "act as appropriate to sustain expansion" could be changed, which could frighten markets even more.
Sberbank CIB Investment Research is a research firm offering equity, fixed income, economics, and strategy research. It covers analysis on all aspects of Russia’s capital markets, issues and industries. The firm analyzes trends in Russia and combines local knowledge with a global perspective. It processes macroeconomic data, market and company-specific news, stock quotes and other information for providing research reports. The firm provides details and latest prices on the most traded names and most traded paper on all segments Russian market. In strategy research, it provides thematic research, tips and descriptions of the methodology used to evaluate companies.
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