Russia FX/Rates Snapshot - September 22, 2021. New Fed Forecasts to Boost Dollar
This morning, the ruble has advanced to 72.85. The backdrop is the PBoC pouring liquidity into the market and investor hopes for a managed debt restructuring of Evergrande. However, we do not expect the upbeat backdrop to remain ahead of the Fed decision, which will be announced at 21:00 Moscow time. We think the Fed will not begin tapering QE yet, but will raise its inflation forecasts today, as well as note the risks of a further inflation pickup and signal a total of 1 pp in rate hikes by end-2024. Against this backdrop, the dollar should rise globally, to 1.165 against the euro and to 73.60 against the ruble, and possibly even further.
Sberbank CIB Investment Research is a research firm offering equity, fixed income, economics, and strategy research. It covers analysis on all aspects of Russia’s capital markets, issues and industries. The firm analyzes trends in Russia and combines local knowledge with a global perspective. It processes macroeconomic data, market and company-specific news, stock quotes and other information for providing research reports. The firm provides details and latest prices on the most traded names and most traded paper on all segments Russian market. In strategy research, it provides thematic research, tips and descriptions of the methodology used to evaluate companies.
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