Russian FX/Rates - CBR Preview Chartpack
> There are no clear signs that inflation has peaked, while inflation expectations are at multi-year highs and the ruble has weakened. Comments from CBR officials have been increasingly hawkish compared to the June meeting. > The upcoming meeting is a "core" one, and the CBR is set revise upward its 2021 inflation forecast from 4.7-5.2% and also revise higher its average key rate forecasts. Historically, the CBR has often hiked by larger than usual increments at meetings when it has revised upward its inflation forecasts (April 2021, late 2018). > We expect a "one-and-done" scenario, as inflation should finally slow down in August-September. A 6.5% YE key rate is our baseline forecast, while our risk scenario is 7.0%.
Sberbank CIB Investment Research is a research firm offering equity, fixed income, economics, and strategy research. It covers analysis on all aspects of Russia’s capital markets, issues and industries. The firm analyzes trends in Russia and combines local knowledge with a global perspective. It processes macroeconomic data, market and company-specific news, stock quotes and other information for providing research reports. The firm provides details and latest prices on the most traded names and most traded paper on all segments Russian market. In strategy research, it provides thematic research, tips and descriptions of the methodology used to evaluate companies.
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