Russian FX/Rates - CBR Preview October '21 Chartpack
Arguments in favor of 50 bps (65% probability):> "Core" meeting - CBR could revise higher inflation forecast for this year by more than 1 pp; historically, that often results in hikes larger than 25 bps> Inflation expectations reversed trend and started ticking up in October, remain above historical averages> A bold move would strengthen ruble, which will push inflation lowerArguments for 25 bps (35%):> CBR rhetoric has become less hawkish recently - they said 2/3 of recent inflation spike was due to one-off factors > Non-food inflation has been moderating recently in SA terms, PPI declined for first time since May 2020 in September> Economic growth passed peak rates
Sberbank CIB Investment Research is a research firm offering equity, fixed income, economics, and strategy research. It covers analysis on all aspects of Russia’s capital markets, issues and industries. The firm analyzes trends in Russia and combines local knowledge with a global perspective. It processes macroeconomic data, market and company-specific news, stock quotes and other information for providing research reports. The firm provides details and latest prices on the most traded names and most traded paper on all segments Russian market. In strategy research, it provides thematic research, tips and descriptions of the methodology used to evaluate companies.
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