Russian Regions - Economic Dynamics Improving, Albeit Slowly So Far
It is our belief that analyzing economic activity at the regional level is a good way to test our hypotheses about the Russian economy as a whole, as this type of analysis provides us with far more observations (for each region). In this report, we show that the economic situation in Russia generally improved in 2Q19, though our credit impulse analysis demonstrated that economic growth would be unlikely to accelerate in 2H19 in the absence of additional stimulus, for example from the budget. We have developed an econometric model that allows us to track both annual and even quarterly gross regional product (GRP) at the country-wide and regional levels, and without a huge delay. As a reminder, the official GRP data is only provided on an annual basis and comes with a major lag - the latest available data is for 2017.
Sberbank CIB Investment Research is a research firm offering equity, fixed income, economics, and strategy research. It covers analysis on all aspects of Russia’s capital markets, issues and industries. The firm analyzes trends in Russia and combines local knowledge with a global perspective. It processes macroeconomic data, market and company-specific news, stock quotes and other information for providing research reports. The firm provides details and latest prices on the most traded names and most traded paper on all segments Russian market. In strategy research, it provides thematic research, tips and descriptions of the methodology used to evaluate companies.
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