Uzbekistan Economics - Reading Through the Current Account Data
Uzbekistan recorded a current account deficit of 7% of GDP in 2018. The deficit stemmed from a surge in imports (up 47% y-o-y), which resulted in a wider trade deficit. Trade liberalization and higher investment (up 18%) driven by state-funded credit growth (total loans rose 57% y-o-y) were behind the rapid expansion of imports. The deficit was financed by an increase in foreign loans (external debt rose to 34% of GDP from 27% in 2017) and a drop in FX reserves (by almost $1 bln). Public investment will likely ease this year, reducing demand for capital goods. However, the current account deficit will remain wide - we expect it at close to 5% of GDP.
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