Uzbekistan Economics - Trusting in Growth
Uzbekistan's economy grew a robust 5.7% y-o-y in 9m19, supported by household consumption and investment. Investment activity was mainly driven by public expenditures and lending, which could slow moving forward, but we expect higher private investment, led by FDI, to compensate for this. Meanwhile, the government continues to pursue a reform agenda, liberalizing foreign trade, reducing price controls, softening rules on FX exchange and cutting taxes for corporates and individuals, which should also boost the economy. Next year, we see GDP growth remaining strong at around 6.5%. The flip side is that higher exports helped to narrow the current account deficit this year to 3.5% of GDP, but we think it is set to widen back above 4.5% next year, affected by an increase in imports on stronger domestic demand and investment.
Sberbank CIB Investment Research is a research firm offering equity, fixed income, economics, and strategy research. It covers analysis on all aspects of Russia’s capital markets, issues and industries. The firm analyzes trends in Russia and combines local knowledge with a global perspective. It processes macroeconomic data, market and company-specific news, stock quotes and other information for providing research reports. The firm provides details and latest prices on the most traded names and most traded paper on all segments Russian market. In strategy research, it provides thematic research, tips and descriptions of the methodology used to evaluate companies.
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