Report
Peter Thilo Hasler

Ungerechtfertigt in Sippenhaft

Aufgrund der eingeleiteten Kostensenkungsmaßnahmen, des angekündigten Wechsels des Logistik-Partners, eines verbesserten Working Capital-Managements, eines sukzessiven Ausbaus des Anteils an höhermargigen Eigenprodukten und einer anhaltenden Standort-Arrondierung rechnen wir – im Einklang mit der mittelfristigen Management-Guidance – für die kommenden Jahre mit einem deutlichen Ergebnisanstieg. Diese aus unserer Sicht absehbaren Ertragsverbesserungen werden derzeit nicht vom Kapitalmarkt honoriert; die Aktie von Adler Modemärkte wird nach u. E. gewissermaßen in „Sippenhaft“ mit anderen textilen Einzelhändlern genommen, die in diesem Jahr zum Teil massive Gewinnwarnungen ausgesprochen haben. Wir bestätigen bei nahezu unveränderten Umsatz- und Ergebnisschätzungen unser aus einem dreistufigen DCF-Entity-Modell abgeleitetes Kursziel von EUR 8,60 je Aktie (Base-Case-Szenario). Aus einer Monte Carlo-Simulation ergeben sich in den getesteten Worst- und Best-Case-Szenarien Werte des Eigenkapitals von EUR 3,70 und EUR 15,60 je Aktie. Angesichts eines von uns auf Sicht von 24 Monaten erwarteten Kurspotenzials von 153,7% bekräftigen wir unser Buy-Rating für die Aktien der Adler Modemärkte AG.

Underlying
Adler Modemaerkte AG

Adler is engaged as a textile retailer in Germany. Co.'s product range is primarily tailored to those aged 45 and above. Co.'s product range includes a selection of womenswear, menswear and kidswear. Co. also provides a supplementary range of products consisting of accessories, footwear, kidswear and babywear, dress and goods. Co.'s brands include MyOwn, Viventy by Bernd Berger, Via Cortesa, Thea 42+, Eagle No.7. and its outdoor brand, eibsee.

Provider
Sphene Capital GmbH
Sphene Capital GmbH

Founded in 2010, Sphene Capital is a German based pure-play research house offering state-of-the-art research and evaluation services to European small- and mid-caps by avoiding typical conflict of interests of traditional investment banks.

As a general rule, analysts of Sphene Capital strive to understand companies better than any other analyst or investor before publishing their initiation reports. Therefore, the comprehensive initiation research reports comprise of 50-80 pages, including an extensive analysis of the value chain of the IPO candidate, its unique selling proposition, an elaborate analysis of suppliers and clients, a thorough SWOT analysis, a commercial due diligence (i. e. market and competitive analysis), an integrated financial forecast model and a profound company valuation (both DCF methodology and peer group multiples). Before publication, each of Sphene Capital’s research report will be double-checked by a fellow research colleague (“Four-eyes-principle”), ensuring highest quality and avoiding careless mistakes.

After initiation of research coverage, Sphene Capital publishes regular updates of 12-30 pages following relevant news flow from the issuer or major peers, f. ex. after acquisitions or after publication of quarterly results.

Due to Sphene Capital’s extensive experience in equity and bond research, the team has established longstanding contacts to all relevant market players, i. e. institutional investors, family offices and high net-worth individuals as well as journalists. To each of these groups, Sphene Capital’s research analysts have regular contacts during analyst and management roadshows or via daily phone calls. Finally, analysts publish articles in selected stock markets magazines and websites in which the analysts help issuers to improve their popularity on the German capital markets.

Analysts
Peter Thilo Hasler

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