Mit einem EBITDA von rund EUR 25 Mio. konnte im vergangenen Geschäftsjahr die Guidance, wonach bei leicht rückläufigen Bruttoerlösen ein EBITDA (adjustiert um Einmaleffekte) zwischen EUR 27 und 30 Mio. erwirtschaftet werden soll, nicht erreicht werden. Deutlich verbessert hat sich demgegenüber der Freie Cashflow, so dass zum Jahresende die Nettoverschuldung nach unserer Einschätzung in eine positive Nettofinanzposition gedreht werden konnte. Aus fundamentalanalytischer Hinsicht hat dies weitaus größere Auswirkungen auf die Unternehmensbewertung als die Gewinnwarnung, deren Auswirkungen nach unserer Einschätzung zum Großteil auf das abgelaufene Geschäftsjahr beschränkt bleiben. Wir heben dementsprechend unser aus einem DCF-Entity-Modell abgeleitetes Kursziel auf EUR 8,20 von bislang EUR 7,50 an. Nach der klaren Outperfomance der Aktie in diesem Jahr (+27,1% vs. DAX 14,4% LTM) bekräftigen wir angesichts einer von uns auf Sicht von zwölf Monaten erwarten Kursentwicklung von 34,0% unser Buy-Rating für die Aktien der Adler Modemärkte AG.
Adler is engaged as a textile retailer in Germany. Co.'s product range is primarily tailored to those aged 45 and above. Co.'s product range includes a selection of womenswear, menswear and kidswear. Co. also provides a supplementary range of products consisting of accessories, footwear, kidswear and babywear, dress and goods. Co.'s brands include MyOwn, Viventy by Bernd Berger, Via Cortesa, Thea 42+, Eagle No.7. and its outdoor brand, eibsee.
Founded in 2010, Sphene Capital is a German based pure-play research house offering state-of-the-art research and evaluation services to European small- and mid-caps by avoiding typical conflict of interests of traditional investment banks.
As a general rule, analysts of Sphene Capital strive to understand companies better than any other analyst or investor before publishing their initiation reports. Therefore, the comprehensive initiation research reports comprise of 50-80 pages, including an extensive analysis of the value chain of the IPO candidate, its unique selling proposition, an elaborate analysis of suppliers and clients, a thorough SWOT analysis, a commercial due diligence (i. e. market and competitive analysis), an integrated financial forecast model and a profound company valuation (both DCF methodology and peer group multiples). Before publication, each of Sphene Capital’s research report will be double-checked by a fellow research colleague (“Four-eyes-principle”), ensuring highest quality and avoiding careless mistakes.
After initiation of research coverage, Sphene Capital publishes regular updates of 12-30 pages following relevant news flow from the issuer or major peers, f. ex. after acquisitions or after publication of quarterly results.
Due to Sphene Capital’s extensive experience in equity and bond research, the team has established longstanding contacts to all relevant market players, i. e. institutional investors, family offices and high net-worth individuals as well as journalists. To each of these groups, Sphene Capital’s research analysts have regular contacts during analyst and management roadshows or via daily phone calls. Finally, analysts publish articles in selected stock markets magazines and websites in which the analysts help issuers to improve their popularity on the German capital markets.
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