Report
Peter Thilo Hasler

Ergebnisanstieg nicht im Aktienkurs eingepreist

Die Zahlen für das abgelaufene Geschäftsjahr belegen den erreichten Turnaround. Dabei wird aovo seine Ertragslage nach u. E. auch in den kommenden Jahren aufgrund der bevorstehenden Großereignisse – der Leichtathletik-EM in Berlin 2018 und den Passionsspielen in Oberammergau 2020 – weiter deutlich verbessern. Nach unserer Berechnung führen diese in den Jahren 2018e bis 2020e zu Cash-Zuflüssen, die nur knapp unter der aktuellen Marktkapitalisierung von aovo liegen. Zwar ist der Kurs der aovo-Aktie in den vergangenen beiden Jahren (+151,7% ggü. DAX +15,6%) bereits deutlich angestiegen, dennoch ist aus unserer Sicht keines der Großereignisse im derzeitigen Aktienkurs enthalten. Wir bestätigen das aus unserem dreistufigen DCF-Entity-Modell abgeleitete mittelfristige Kursziel von EUR 9,10 je Aktie (Base Case-Szenario) und angesichts einer von uns auf Sicht von 24 Monaten erwarteten Kursentwicklung von 103,1% auch unser Buy-Rating für die Aktien der aovo Touristik AG.

Provider
Sphene Capital GmbH
Sphene Capital GmbH

Founded in 2010, Sphene Capital is a German based pure-play research house offering state-of-the-art research and evaluation services to European small- and mid-caps by avoiding typical conflict of interests of traditional investment banks.

As a general rule, analysts of Sphene Capital strive to understand companies better than any other analyst or investor before publishing their initiation reports. Therefore, the comprehensive initiation research reports comprise of 50-80 pages, including an extensive analysis of the value chain of the IPO candidate, its unique selling proposition, an elaborate analysis of suppliers and clients, a thorough SWOT analysis, a commercial due diligence (i. e. market and competitive analysis), an integrated financial forecast model and a profound company valuation (both DCF methodology and peer group multiples). Before publication, each of Sphene Capital’s research report will be double-checked by a fellow research colleague (“Four-eyes-principle”), ensuring highest quality and avoiding careless mistakes.

After initiation of research coverage, Sphene Capital publishes regular updates of 12-30 pages following relevant news flow from the issuer or major peers, f. ex. after acquisitions or after publication of quarterly results.

Due to Sphene Capital’s extensive experience in equity and bond research, the team has established longstanding contacts to all relevant market players, i. e. institutional investors, family offices and high net-worth individuals as well as journalists. To each of these groups, Sphene Capital’s research analysts have regular contacts during analyst and management roadshows or via daily phone calls. Finally, analysts publish articles in selected stock markets magazines and websites in which the analysts help issuers to improve their popularity on the German capital markets.

Analysts
Peter Thilo Hasler

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