HSBC - Deficiencies and inadequacies on a global scale
There is little evidence that HSBC’s sprawling footprint supports connectivity across customers and geographies. Its non-interest income compares poorly with peer large banks, while its fee income continues to come down. Net insurance income has been in loss for years. A broad gauge of operating returns - operating income/assets - continues to trend lower and where this is not distorted by credit costs. If HSBC were benefitting from its unique global position, these measures would appear more robust. It is a long-standing misperception; the reality is different.
The track record of HSBC to attain respectable returns is poor. It is not simply a matter of regulations but rather strategy and execution. The track record of HSBC in its acquisitions has been poor, and these will be linked. The mere talk of buying into a US financial company, such as SYF, is enough to make anyone wonder. It is a worrying signal of a bank seemingly unable to learn from its mistakes and still without the mettle to embrace real change; change that positively affects the business and results in clearly visible, higher returns.
With the credit cycle turning downward in key regions, where most do not focus, the risk is for a negative surprise, to an already subpar ROA - which is at similar levels to some of Asia's most dismal banks: those in Japan.
HSBC Holdings is a financial services holding company. Through its subsidiaries, Co. operates four businesses: Retail Banking and Wealth Management, which serves customers through four businesses: Retail Banking, Wealth Management, Asset Management, and Insurance; Commercial Banking, which provides working capital, term loans, payment services, and international trade facilitation; Global Banking and Markets, which delivers a range of transaction banking, financing, advisory, capital markets, and risk management services; and Global Private Banking, which provides a range of private banking services. At Dec 31 2017, Co. had total assets of US$2.52 trillion and deposits of US$69.92 trillion.
We provide research and consultancy on Asian banks. Our focus is on what we call “Asian bank research, without the noise.” We are interested in the most critical swing-factors for banks, the NPL and credit cycle, and where we believe there is a gap between perception and reality. We often focus on the less studied components of bank financial statements. Our research is highly thematic, sometimes examining unlisted banks and companies as a window on mainstream banks.
Being independent allows us to look at smaller banks, often overlooked by others. Analysis of BIS bank guidelines in the context of Asia, is also a focal point, while we also analyze global banks operating in the region. We use what we believe is the most comprehensive, reliable financials database, SNL Financial. S&P Capital IQ augments our database, with corporate data and CEIC, with economics.
Daniel Tabbush has been highly ranked by Asiamoney, Bloomberg and The Asset for his Asian bank analysis, which began more than 20 years ago, and making him the longest standing Head of Asian Bank research in Asia. Tabbush made his name analyzing banks in Thailand, highlighting bad loan risks for Thai banks before and after the Thai Financial Crisis of 1997.
He is known for extolling the unusual positives of Japan’s mega banks in 2005, and the risks likely to hit HSBC from its U.S. subprime loan operations, in 2006. More recently, when most were concerned with nearly all Western banks in late 2008, Tabbush highlighted the positive outlook for Standard Chartered Bank at that time.
He was Head of Asian Bank research for 10 years at the top rated CLSA, overseeing 10 analysts in Asia and coverage of approximately 80 banks. In this role, he spearheaded bank coverage in Japan and Australia. Tabbush was also responsible for research of HSBC and Standard Chartered Bank. Prior to this role, he was the Managing Director of CLSA Securities (Thailand) and its Head of Research. Daniel began his stock-broking career in Thailand in 1993 at Swiss Bank Corp, where his focus was on Thai Banks, after which he joined CLSA in 1996. Daniel grew up in Los Angeles, graduated from University of California, San Diego in Economics, cum laude and with Phi Beta Kappa honors. He lives with his wife and kids in Bangkok and he enjoys running, cooking and playing chess.
Since leaving the stock broking industry in 2012, he has run his Tabbush Report research and consultancy business.
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