Vermilion Int'l Compass: Global Equity Strategy
Opportunity Within Europe and JapanOur bullish outlook on global equities (MSCI ACWI) remains intact. We view this pullback as a buying opportunity and we are watching for $116-$117 support to hold on ACWI-US; this is an important resistance-turned-support level dating back to July 2024. Europe and Japan are on the cusp of major breakouts above critical resistance levels of 5000-5120 on the EURO STOXX 50 and 2740-2820 on the TOPIX. Europe has been consolidating for nine months, while Japan has been consolidating for over five months; both appear ready to break out to the upside -- add exposure. Moreover, the leading names within Europe and Japan are already breaking out, and buying these names is a main focus in this report. Germany's DAX already broke out and is leading the way, as discussed in our December 12, 2024 Int'l Compass.
Remain Overweight the U.S. Our only country overweight is the U.S. (S&P 500), though we are monitoring Germany (DAX) for an upgrade to overweight.
Market Dynamics Remain Constructive. U.S. and European high yield spreads are at 17-year and 3-year narrows, respectively. Long-term uptrends starting at the October 2022 lows remain intact on MSCI ACWI, ACWI ex-U.S., and EAFE (in local currency). U.S. interest rate volatility (MOVE index) remains subdued. Mainland China (Shanghai Composite) remains constructive as it tests 3175 support. Global growth Sectors are outperforming (Consumer Discretionary, Technology, Services, and Communication Services), as are Financials, while defensives are underperforming and hitting new RS lows (Consumer Staples, Utilities, Health Care, and Real Estate). The global Discretionary vs. Staples ratio (RXI-US vs. KXI-US) is breaking to all-time highs and remains in an uptrend. This all strongly points to a risk-on environment.
Potential Concerns? Strength in the U.S. dollar (DXY) and 10- and 30-year Treasury yields could eventually become problematic, but we believe the more likely scenario is that they have very little upside left, and a break below $107-108 on DXY and 4.5% on the 10-year would likely mean a local top is in (and potentially a longer-term top as well). Additionally, 1- and 2-year yields are moving sideways to lower... see page 2.
Actionable Themes: Financials, Energy, and Consumer Discretionary. We want to stick with global growth Sectors (Consumer Discretionary, Services, and Technology) that we have been recommending for months, but Financials and Energy appear poised to outperform as well -- add exposure.
BANK OF JIANGSU CO., LTD. is a China-based regional commercial bank. The bank is principally engaged in the provision of banking and related financial services. The Bank mainly operates its businesses through personal banking business, corporate banking business, interbank financial business, network finance business, small and micro financial business, as well as credit card issuing. Its personal banking business provides loan, deposit, investment and financing, as well as bank card business to individuals. Its corporate banking business provides deposit and lending services, wealth management services, as well as project finance financing services, among others to enterprises. The Bank is also involved in the provision of electronic banking, Internet banking, mobile phone banking and telephone banking services.
Deutsche Boerse is a financial services provider. Co.'s segments include Eurex, which comprises areas such as T7 electronic derivatives market trading platform, T7 electronic options trading platform, and Eurex Repo® over-the-counter trading platform; Xetra, which comprises areas such as cash market, the Specialist trading, and Eurex Bonds® OTC trading platform. Clearstream, which comprises custody and settlement services, securities financing services and collateral management, and investment funds services; and Market Data + Services, which comprises areas such as Distribution of licenses for real-time trading and market signals, and development and sales of indices.
Emergent BioSolutions is a life sciences company. The company is focused on preparedness and response products and solutions that address the following categories: Chemical, Biological, Radiological, Nuclear and Explosives; emerging infectious diseases; travel health; emerging health crises; acute/emergency care; and contract development and manufacturing. The company also has a development pipeline consisting of a mix of both pre-clinical and clinical-stage product candidates, including Trobigard? a combination drug-device auto injector product candidate. In addition, the company has a fully integrated molecule-to-market biologics CDMO business offerings (development services, drug substance and drug product).
HSBC Holdings is a financial services holding company. Through its subsidiaries, Co. operates four businesses: Retail Banking and Wealth Management, which serves customers through four businesses: Retail Banking, Wealth Management, Asset Management, and Insurance; Commercial Banking, which provides working capital, term loans, payment services, and international trade facilitation; Global Banking and Markets, which delivers a range of transaction banking, financing, advisory, capital markets, and risk management services; and Global Private Banking, which provides a range of private banking services. At Dec 31 2017, Co. had total assets of US$2.52 trillion and deposits of US$69.92 trillion.
Mitsubishi UFJ Financial Group is financial groups with total assets of Y297,185,019 million as of Mar. 31, 2017. Co. is the holding company for The Bank of Tokyo-Mitsubishi UFJ, Ltd., Mitsubishi UFJ Trust and Banking Corporation, Mitsubishi UFJ Securities Holdings Co., Ltd., Mitsubishi UFJ Morgan Stanley Securities Co., Ltd., Mitsubishi UFJ NICOS Co., Ltd., and other companies. As a bank holding company, Co. is regulated under the Banking Law of Japan. Its services include commercial banking, trust banking, securities, credit cards, consumer finance, asset management, leasing and many more fields of financial services.
Northern Data AG is a Germany-based company engaged in the information technology (IT) industry. The Company develops and builds infrastructure solutions in the area of High-Performance Computing (HPC). The Company offers its solutions in such areas as machine learning and artificial intelligence (AI), big data analytics, blockchain, game streaming, video rendering and others. The Company offers its HPC solutions both stationary in large centers and in mobile, high-technology data centers based on containers, which can be set up at any location worldwide. The Company combines self-developed software and hardware with intelligent concepts for a sustainable energy supply. The Company serves customers worldwide.
Royal Bank of Canada is a financial services company that provides personal and commercial banking, wealth management services, insurance, investor services and capital markets products and services. Co. serves personal, business, public sector and institutional clients through offices in Canada, the U.S. and 37 other countries. Co. is organized into five segments: Personal and Commercial Banking, which is comprised of Co.'s personal and business banking operations, and its auto financing businesses; Wealth Management, Insurance; Investor and Treasury Services; and Capital Markets. As of Oct 31 2017, Co. had total assets of C$1.21 trillion and total deposits of C$789.64 billion.
Sumitomo Mitsui Financial Group is a holding company of the group mainly engaged in the provision of finance services. Co. offers services include deposits, loans, securities transaction, securities investment, domestic and foreign exchange, futures trading, bond fiduciary and registration, trust, security investment trust and insurance over-the-counter sales; leasing business; securities business; consumer finance, automobile sale finance business, venture capital business, business consulting, membership business, loan business, factoring, system development, information processing, money collection, swap related and investment adviser, among others.
Vermilion Research delivers timely, actionable, and unique research inputs to professional investors. Our research strategists highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various proprietary technical indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. We believe our research methodology, which is not limited by industry sector or market capitalization, enables us to deliver superior investment recommendations.
Our process begins by organizing all actively traded stocks into coherent sectors, then into logical industry groups. We then apply our proprietary relative strength tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sectors or groups, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. Vermilion offers U.S. and global equity market research products. Vermilion’s research team, which has received numerous awards and accolades, has a combined 70 year of experience in the analysis of investment securities.
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