T.H. Capital

​T.H. Capital is an independent research and investment advisory firm specializing in China. We offers real-time, on-the-ground, bottom-up research across a wide spectrum from macro and industry analysis to company specific projects; from China ADRs to international names that have meaningful exposure to China market. We deliver relevant, comprehensive and data driven research adding immense value to clients.

Tian Hou
  • Tian Hou

BZ: Long-Term Positive On BZ; Ongoing Data Review Is Likely To Be Conc...

BZ will report 1Q22 results on June 20th before the US markets open with an 8am ET conference call. We are positive on BZ’s performance in 1Q22 but cautious on its 2Q22 outlook due to the slowdown of China’s economy caused by large scale COVID lockdowns from mid-March to May. However, it is a temporary impact. The key factor for BZ’s growth is the government’s data security review, which started in July 2021. At this point, we believe it will be concluded soon. The conclusion is likely to be pos...

Tian Hou
  • Tian Hou

BILI: Lowering Estimates For 1Q22 And 2Q22; Expect Improvement in 2H22...

BILI will report 1Q22 results on June 9th before the US markets open with an 8am ET conference call. We are lowering our estimates for 1Q22 and 2Q22 to reflect the slowdown in China’s economy particularly in April and May due to COVID-related lockdowns. BILI’s advertising business has taken a hit from the macro headwinds. On the game side, domestic game approvals are taking longer than expected, which has impacted BILI’s game business. However, we expect improvement in the company’s advertising ...

Tian Hou
  • Tian Hou

YMM: 1H2022 Impacted By COVID Lockdowns; Expect Better 2H2022 As Lockd...

YMM will report 1Q22 results on June 8th before the US markets open with an 8am ET conference call. We are cautious on YMM’s 1Q22 performance and 2Q22 outlook as the company was impacted by COVID lockdowns. As a result of highway closures and other mobility restrictive measures across China, the operations of the shipping and freight industry were severely impacted. However, starting from June 1, 2022 Shanghai is going to lift the ban and will go back to normal; and Beijing is also on its way ba...

Tian Hou
  • Tian Hou

WB: Lowering 2Q22 Estimates to Reflect The Current State Of China’s Ec...

WB will report 1Q22 results on June 1st before the US markets open with a 7am ET conference call. We are lowering our estimates for 2Q22 to reflect the negative impact from China’s zero-COVID lockdowns, particularly in Shanghai. The lockdowns have caused a slowdown in China’s economy, which worsened in March April and May. WB has many key accounts in Shanghai. We believe these accounts are not optimistic for their ad spending. WB is also impacted by the depreciation of China’s currency.  However...

Tian Hou
  • Tian Hou

PDD: Weak Macro And COVID Lockdowns Impact PDD’s 1H2022

PDD will report 1Q22 results on May 27th before the markets open with a 7:30am ET conference call. We are neutral on PDD’s performance in 1Q22 and 2Q22 outlook. China’s economic slowdown worsened in 1Q22 and into April especially with the lockdown in Shanghai and other cities. Consumption in March was much worse than the first two months of 1Q22, and April and May are likely to be even worse than March. As such, we are lowering our estimates for 1Q22 and 2Q22 accordingly. However, we are positiv...

Tian Hou
  • Tian Hou

BZ: Long-Term Positive On BZ; Ongoing Data Review Is Likely To Be Conc...

BZ will report 1Q22 results on June 20th before the US markets open with an 8am ET conference call. We are positive on BZ’s performance in 1Q22 but cautious on its 2Q22 outlook due to the slowdown of China’s economy caused by large scale COVID lockdowns from mid-March to May. However, it is a temporary impact. The key factor for BZ’s growth is the government’s data security review, which started in July 2021. At this point, we believe it will be concluded soon. The conclusion is likely to be pos...

Tian Hou
  • Tian Hou

BILI: Lowering Estimates For 1Q22 And 2Q22; Expect Improvement in 2H22...

BILI will report 1Q22 results on June 9th before the US markets open with an 8am ET conference call. We are lowering our estimates for 1Q22 and 2Q22 to reflect the slowdown in China’s economy particularly in April and May due to COVID-related lockdowns. BILI’s advertising business has taken a hit from the macro headwinds. On the game side, domestic game approvals are taking longer than expected, which has impacted BILI’s game business. However, we expect improvement in the company’s advertising ...

Tian Hou
  • Tian Hou

YMM: 1H2022 Impacted By COVID Lockdowns; Expect Better 2H2022 As Lockd...

YMM will report 1Q22 results on June 8th before the US markets open with an 8am ET conference call. We are cautious on YMM’s 1Q22 performance and 2Q22 outlook as the company was impacted by COVID lockdowns. As a result of highway closures and other mobility restrictive measures across China, the operations of the shipping and freight industry were severely impacted. However, starting from June 1, 2022 Shanghai is going to lift the ban and will go back to normal; and Beijing is also on its way ba...

Tian Hou
  • Tian Hou

WB: Lowering 2Q22 Estimates to Reflect The Current State Of China’s Ec...

WB will report 1Q22 results on June 1st before the US markets open with a 7am ET conference call. We are lowering our estimates for 2Q22 to reflect the negative impact from China’s zero-COVID lockdowns, particularly in Shanghai. The lockdowns have caused a slowdown in China’s economy, which worsened in March April and May. WB has many key accounts in Shanghai. We believe these accounts are not optimistic for their ad spending. WB is also impacted by the depreciation of China’s currency.  However...

Tian Hou
  • Tian Hou

PDD: Weak Macro And COVID Lockdowns Impact PDD’s 1H2022

PDD will report 1Q22 results on May 27th before the markets open with a 7:30am ET conference call. We are neutral on PDD’s performance in 1Q22 and 2Q22 outlook. China’s economic slowdown worsened in 1Q22 and into April especially with the lockdown in Shanghai and other cities. Consumption in March was much worse than the first two months of 1Q22, and April and May are likely to be even worse than March. As such, we are lowering our estimates for 1Q22 and 2Q22 accordingly. However, we are positiv...

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