Report
EUR 8.70
For Business Accounts Only
http://trackresearch.com/articles/the-morning-track-balances/
The USD is weaker against the EUR and GBP and stronger against much of the EM world. Markets are returning to “normal†faster than many expected. German 10Y rates are back to 2015 highs. US 10Y rates are back over the pre-FOMC levels with a March hike certain now. Rates are back driving FX and beginning to bother equities. But the rally up in Japan overnight and in Italy is worth highlighting as equities also watch growth. The PMI reports today are the news and they are robust. They add to the “global coordinated recovery†story that drives commodities higher, support corporate earnings and leave 2018 the best start for many a decade in risk assets. The troubles of month-end are gone and markets are thinking about balance of risks again. Inflation seems to be the obvious one and rates hikes the solution. So that is how we trade February 1 – with an eye on rates and a scan of any news that supports the argument. So far, the global PMI reports all point to mo
re growth, more inflation, more confidence. So why not take January and repeat it in February? The balance of fear has significantly shifted from the most hated rally to one that we just can’t get enough of…yet. Watching US bonds for the guide as no one wants them, loves them or believes in them.
The Morning Track balances
- The Morning Track - Balances by Bob Savagehttp://trackresearch.com/articles/the-morning-track-balances/
The USD is weaker against the EUR and GBP and stronger against much of the EM world. Markets are returning to “normal†faster than many expected. German 10Y rates are back to 2015 highs. US 10Y rates are back over the pre-FOMC levels with a March hike certain now. Rates are back driving FX and beginning to bother equities. But the rally up in Japan overnight and in Italy is worth highlighting as equities also watch growth. The PMI reports today are the news and they are robust. They add to the “global coordinated recovery†story that drives commodities higher, support corporate earnings and leave 2018 the best start for many a decade in risk assets. The troubles of month-end are gone and markets are thinking about balance of risks again. Inflation seems to be the obvious one and rates hikes the solution. So that is how we trade February 1 – with an eye on rates and a scan of any news that supports the argument. So far, the global PMI reports all point to mo
re growth, more inflation, more confidence. So why not take January and repeat it in February? The balance of fear has significantly shifted from the most hated rally to one that we just can’t get enough of…yet. Watching US bonds for the guide as no one wants them, loves them or believes in them.
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Robert Savage
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