reports
- Robert Savage
The Weekly Track redemption
- The Weekly Track - Redemption by Bob Savage /articles/the-weekly-track-redemption/ Spring is about redemption from winter, of hope over doubt, of growth over recession, of assets over liabilities. The week ahead will be about China and its growth and success of the credit induced push from Beijing to regain confidence. The gloom of 4Q seems long gone, much like winter, and the search for redemption of those afraid of another recession is now underway. The pain trade has been in retai...
- Robert Savage
The Morning Track tgif
- The Morning Track – TGIF by Bob Savage /articles/the-morning-track-tgif/ The movements of everything can be explained. Whether those stories hold true with similar data into the future has yet to be proved. This is the curse of trading fundamentally without an eye also on technical price changes. Note that the two big stories overnight are the culprits for the modest rise in volatility for EUR/JPY and US bonds – with MUFG’s bid for Germany’s DZ Banks aviation arm E5.6bn deal ...
- Robert Savage
The Morning Track superlatives
- The Morning Track – Superlatives by Bob Savage /articles/the-morning-track-superlatives/ There is nothing ordinary about today. The calm before the storm is the siren call for risk taking. One may come into the office and look at the price action and assume nothing has changed and the world is stuck despite the pictures of black holes from outer space, or the ECB dovish tilt or the FOMC stoic patience or US/China accord on trade deal enforcement or the EU/UK flexible Brexit delay unt...
- Robert Savage
The Morning Track benign
- The Morning Track - Benign by Bob Savage /articles/the-morning-track-benign/ Most see the low volume, low volatility world of markets as benign, not malignant, despite the scares from inverted yield curves, 4Q price action PTSD and ongoing geopolitical uncertainty from Brexit to US/China to elections from Australia to Israel to India and Spain. Anyone looking down from above would see oil at 5-month highs and China iron ore at record highs grinding against the easy money policy of cen...
- Robert Savage
The Morning Track soggy
- The Morning Track - Soggy by Bob Savage /articles/the-morning-track-soggy/ April showers….. The week begins with a soggy start as deal hopes for Brexit remain in play with Tory May and Labour Corbyn still trying to patch together an exit deal before April 12th while the EU has to decide to grant them an extension. The US/China talks ended and deal hopes remain without a clear summit or end date. The US military pulls out of Libya while that civil war heats up driving oil prices. Th...
- Robert Savage
The Weekly Track more-please
- The Weekly Track – More Please by Bob Savage /articles/the-weekly-track-more-please/ The removal of fear brings and an extension of greed. The fear of a no-deal Brexit receded a bit as the UK Parliament pushed back on all alternatives and asked for an EU extension in the midst of chaotic politics. The fear of a no-deal US/China talks receded further as a summit between Trump/Xi sets up for 4-6 weeks. The fear of another FOMC flip-flop on rate guidance receded with a tame but strong ...
- Robert Savage
The Morning Track broken-screens
- The Morning Track - Broken Screens by Bob Savage /articles/the-morning-track-broken-screens/ Are the screens broken? In the ancient days of trading, frustration with a too quiet market that then surprisingly moved led to many a phone being slammed into green flickering computers screens, shattering into a spider’s web of glass. Positions and expectations clashed into the voice broker screams of missed orders and discontinuous prices. This has all changed with digital everything but ...
- Robert Savage
The Morning Track muddling-2
- The Morning Track – Muddling by Bob Savage /articles/the-morning-track-muddling-2/ Children play in mud, adults get stuck in it. While markets pause for a breather ahead of the US jobs report tomorrow and despite more evidence of progress in US/China trade talks – as President Trump meets China vice-premier Liu at the White House today – or as UK Brexit expectations shift into long delays with new elections, customs union and second referendum chances. Few look happy to be waiti...
- Robert Savage
The Morning Track sysiphus
- The Morning Track – Sysiphus by Bob Savage /articles/the-morning-track-sysiphus/ Imagine a happy Sysiphus, pushing the rock up the hill, almost to the end, then gravity returns the stone back down day after day. Investors climb the wall of worry in a similar fashion but the mood is determined by where the rock is relative to the hill. Now imagine US/China trade talks as they appear almost finished, according to the FT, but tariff removal and enforcement issues push us back to reality...
- Robert Savage
The Morning Track subdued-5
- The Morning Track – Subdued by Bob Savage /articles/the-morning-track-subdued-5/ The April Fools trick for markets was that the rally yesterday was no joke. The momentum higher in risk assets persists with a few exceptions like Turkey and Italian shares. The USD is up, bonds are up, stocks are up and oil is up world persists but in a more subdued fashion. This moderation in mood may pivot on US/China trade or Brexit or momentum continuing – I highlight 2 standouts as drivers from...
- Robert Savage
The Morning Track delusions-2
- The Morning Track – Delusions by Bob Savage /articles/the-morning-track-delusions-2/ The deference between illusions and delusions may help as market embark into April, seasonally one of the better months for risk assets, but also one filled with the fundamentals doubts that make selling in May so popular. Illusions are external while delusions are internal. You can only have an illusion by distortions of the senses – for markets this means manipulation and fixings in prices, while...
- Robert Savage
The Weekly Track fools
- The Weekly Track – Fools by Bob Savage /articles/the-weekly-track-fools/ Spring and April Fool’s Day await and markets have delivered the expected in like a lion and out like a lamb result for investors in March. Seasonal noises have delivered the expected up month for March and leave the April outlook expecting the same. The central fear is that rushing into the present risk asset rally feels foolish even with the seasonal push, given the fear displayed by various central banke...
- Robert Savage
The Morning Track turns
- The Morning Track – Turns by Bob Savage /articles/the-morning-track-turns/ There is a smell of hope in the air, of a risk and growth turn about as markets soak in the accolades of the first quarter for 2019. This was the best performance for China shares since 2014 – and yet China growth doubts remain front and center. The stimulus efforts and the ongoing US/China trade talks are cited as the reason for today’s outsized performance (up over 3%) but perhaps its as simple as the ...
- Robert Savage
The Morning Track not-excited
- The Morning Track – Not Excited by Bob Savage /articles/the-morning-track-not-excited/ Color me not excited. News flows are not matching up with market volatility as we see bonds higher, stocks mixed, FX stuck and commodities confused but holding more bid than offered. This is a risk-parity heaven where passive beats active, where machines make mockery of discretionary human thought. We can blame oursleve for the color choice and the programming. The US/China trade talk optimism is c...
- Robert Savage
The Morning Track developing
- The Morning Track – Developing by Bob Savage /articles/the-morning-track-developing/ Shake it like a Polaroid Picture. That is the advice for today as markets wait for political clarity on Brexit, more on US/China trade talks and China stimulus plans, more on how emerging markets are going to stop the rising USD trade despite the sharp drop in global rates. The picture on global growth is mixing badly with the policy uncertainties. Back to the headlines for a quick refresher on why y...
- Robert Savage
The Morning Track big-house
- The Morning Track – Big House by Bob Savage /articles/the-morning-track-big-house/ In a big house it’s easy to get lost as the maze of rooms lead to many different exits. This is the lesson for the markets today as they watch central bankers and the UK Parliament. The focus of markets is back to rates and the policy prognostications from central bankers as the level of negative yielding bonds rises over $10 trillion. Markets are unsettled still though modestly stable even with econ...
- Robert Savage
The Weekly Track gravity-hill
- The Weekly Track – Gravity Hill by Bob Savage /articles/the-weekly-track-gravity-hill/ Markets are on gravity hill, a place where the layout of the road ahead produces optical illusions, so that a car in neutral appears to be rolling uphill against gravity. Without a horizon, it becomes difficult to judge the slope of a surface, as a reliable reference is missing. This is what we hear from the FOMC as global uncertainty overwhelms the present condition. We have been in this spot for...
- Robert Savage
The Morning Track brackets
- The Morning Track - Brackets by Bob Savage /articles/the-morning-track-brackets/ March madness for markets continues. The analogy to US college basketball shouldn’t be ignored, its Friday and more surprises will follow. Brackets force impossible choices and generate random outcomes that even the best systematic algos find difficult to win wheter in hoops or currencies. Upsets happen. The hope going into today was the ECB/FOMC and other central bank dovishness would be the push for ...
- Robert Savage
The Morning Track impatient
- The Morning Track – Impatient? by Bob Savage /articles/the-morning-track-impatient/ Apologies to the loyal readers of this missive, yesterday was about the FOMC and my inability to do everything in time. Today is the same. I’m chairing a conference in London and found between sketchy internet and jet-lag that writing a timely piece was impossible. I’ll make it up with a review of the conference later. Time remains a key component for all traders – and waiting it out for cha...
- Robert Savage
The Morning Track waiting-4
- The Morning Track - Waiting by Bob Savage /articles/the-morning-track-waiting-4/ The wait for the FOMC meeting is on and markets overnight continued to stretch for yield and risk with WTI oil over $59, USD lower, equities mostly bid. The delays in US/China deals or in a Brexit resolution are to be ignored – as the wait is too long for traders to consider or investors to fear. Nevertheless, some are excited about the UK constitutional crisis as the Speaker Bercow blocks the PM from pu...
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