EUR 9.06 For Business Accounts Only

The Morning Track betterly

- The Morning Track – Betterly by Bob Savage
http://track.com/articles/the-morning-track-betterly/

Fake words may make the day but fake news never. Things are getting better all the time. The bull market continues in equities as the world awaits the phenomenal tax reform from the US and sees better growth following everywhere. Fake words aren’t the same as fake news or false statistics. Japan 4Q GDP was higher at 0.2% q/q, 1.0% y/y – near enough to expectations – but not enough for Abe and Kuroda, let alone Trump. The Chinese NBS vowed to battle its own data set issues as it tries to square the circle on 6.5% GDP and SAFE promises less capital controls even as 7.00 looms in CNY. Markets in Europe saw a robust open and are content to watch the French polls showing Macron leading still in 2nd round and too close to call in the first round between Le Pen, Macron and Fillon. The EU commission released its winter forecast GDP update and its up from the Autumn with inflation higher as well thanks to oil base effects. Oil is waiting for the OPEC monthly report agai
nst the increased US oil production. The iron and copper rallies in industrial metals are extending like equities – all higher in a betterly world full of hope that the next focus for markets is tax reform not trade wars. The JPY started the USD rally and the EUR killed it today – leaving everyone content to wait it out for more earnings, more data and Yellen testimony tomorrow. The carry trades are working until then and that makes the market rethink developed vs. emerging markets. The AUD stalling out in front of .77 again today is something to watch here. With metals higher, the correlations suggest A$ will break out, but with US rates in play to move up, and JPY unwilling to break 114.50 the risks are in the steep move up in risk stalling. The risk-on mood may find AUD is the best barometer.