EUR 9.38 For Business Accounts Only

The Morning Track black-friday

- The Morning Track - Black Friday by Bob Savage
http://track.com/articles/the-morning-track-black-friday/

Today is about spending money in the US while the rest of the world grinds into the last weekend of the month with some clear trepidation that things have moved too fast and too far. The news over the last 2 days has been mixed with political events again dominating but price action in the USD seems to be the biggest headline –



Turkey President Erdogan vows to open borders after EU vote – this is about the immigration threat against EU market opening and economics.
TRY still near record low of 3.4760 off 9% since US election even after 50bps rate hike to 8% yesterday – this highlights rates aren’t enough to stop EM flight – ask Mexico.


There were plenty of other economic stories that mattered during the last 48 hours from slightly better Japan CPI to better New Zealand Trade to weaker German IFO to stronger French Business Climate. The UK CBI distributive sales were stronger and add to Autumn Budget bid to GBP. Markets also continue to watch the JPY and CNY for panic attack warnings in bonds and other markets. The move up in CNH overnight ran - like the JPY at 113.90 – into something like exhaustion, which maybe all you need to know about today. The risk-on and risk-off moods for USD in Asia drove bonds more than bonds drove USD. Equities were bid in Asia on USD retreats more than much else and Europe is hurting as the lower bonds and higher EUR reflect more confusion over ECB repo and QE policy ahead. That leaves the market to ponder the US Black Friday sales stories where higher prices really do matter when everyone is looking for a sale.