EUR 9.28 For Business Accounts Only

The Morning Track check-please

- The Morning Track – Check Please by Bob Savage
http://track.com/articles/the-morning-track-check-please/

When you go out to eat and have a good meal but the prices aren’t on the menu there is always that sinking feeling of fear that you might not have enough to cover the bill. That anxiety matters and makes for indigestion – something that may best describe today’s market. The exit bill for the UK was reported at E100bn which Brexit Secretary Davis denies is that high. UK PM May vowed she wouldn’t be pushed about, saying that EU Juncker is learning she can be “bloody difficult.” FT reports she has now been excluded from Brexit term talks from other EU leaders. While that may not bode well for the coming negotiations, it won’t necessarily hurt May’s chances as she seeks re-election on June 8 and so it goes for markets – as they too seem less simple. The sea of red ahead of the Fed may make some squeamish. Economic data overnight was less as well with more focus on China and the PBOC skipping the MLF rollover driving rates higher. Metals and Oil also more o
f a focus with Oil bouncing from 6-week lows on API report that will need confirmation from EIA to hold. The copper decline hurts the AUD despite better Service PMI and stopped the NZD rally even with a good jobs report. Eurozone GDP was as expected, PPI lower, while German machine orders lower. Net EUR stuck in tight range waiting for Macron/LePen debate and more politics with difficult women theme on the rise but rates not so much. The UK Construction PMI stronger like the Manufacturing yesterday – but the better April economy isn’t enough to shake off Brexit and other political jitters. This all leaves GBP as the most interesting FX play on the day into the FOMC decision which most see as a non-event with the ADP the flash report for NFP Friday more likely the USD mover. Watching US dollar index hasn’t been so exciting with 98.35-100.75 range consolidation like waiting for the check.