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On the face of it, today isn’t much different than yesterday. News was light with speeches from RBA, ECB and BOE headline grabbers but insufficient to heat up a cold equity market still reeling from US/China trade problems with fear that tech leads the pain trade there bleeding into the FAANG index dropping 22% from its highs. No one is warmed up by the Carney quip that another rate hike will follow if GBP weakness drives more inflationary growth or that RBA Lowe sees 4.5% unemployment. ECB talk about market discipline for Italy isn’t helpful either. The only positives are that the worst case scenarios haven’t hit – the UK still has a government, the Brexit plan isn’t dead, the US isn’t in another war. But the mood for safe-havens is the driver and price action is all that matters right now. This makes it key to pay attention to the safe-havens for the turn in mood as the weather can change faster than a computer algo can trade.
The Morning Track cold-weather
- The Morning Track – Cold Weather by Bob Savage/articles/the-morning-track-cold-weather/
On the face of it, today isn’t much different than yesterday. News was light with speeches from RBA, ECB and BOE headline grabbers but insufficient to heat up a cold equity market still reeling from US/China trade problems with fear that tech leads the pain trade there bleeding into the FAANG index dropping 22% from its highs. No one is warmed up by the Carney quip that another rate hike will follow if GBP weakness drives more inflationary growth or that RBA Lowe sees 4.5% unemployment. ECB talk about market discipline for Italy isn’t helpful either. The only positives are that the worst case scenarios haven’t hit – the UK still has a government, the Brexit plan isn’t dead, the US isn’t in another war. But the mood for safe-havens is the driver and price action is all that matters right now. This makes it key to pay attention to the safe-havens for the turn in mood as the weather can change faster than a computer algo can trade.
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Robert Savage
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