Report
EUR 8.84
For Business Accounts Only
http://track.com/articles/the-morning-track-data-dump/
The kettle of hawks this week still darkens the sky for summer but today is month-end, quarter-end and half-year end making the price action more about marks than policy. The simple arithmetic of June shows the pain as positions rotate – European shares fell 3% but remain a favorite holding for US managers. The USD has dropped over 2% this week and fully unwound the Trump trade gains from November. US shares see the NASDAQ off 1% while the DJIA is up1%. The global bonds are up 20bps on the week in major centers but for the US they are still stuck in the middle of the 2Q range. Price action today also followed the calendar with month-end duration buying fighting the hawkish talk about rates from central banks. The prices action also followed the data – something that brought a bevy of economic surprises – from China PMI to German Jobs to higher Eurozone core CPI. Transitory factors are sifted from long-term trend with Japan’s jump in unemployment perhaps the most
surprising along with weaker industrial production. The day ahead for the US seems likely to be quiet given the excitement already provided by the week but the data ahead continues to matter along with FOMC speakers. The data dump risks of the day shouldn’t be ignored in the context of how central bankers react nor how politicians feel about being second fiddle again. For markets, the risk metric that seems most at odds is JPY with big support for USD at 111.15-111.30 essential into the new quarter and month. The 100-day is likely the pivot to watch today at 111.80.
The Morning Track data-dump
- The Morning Track - Data Dump by Bob Savagehttp://track.com/articles/the-morning-track-data-dump/
The kettle of hawks this week still darkens the sky for summer but today is month-end, quarter-end and half-year end making the price action more about marks than policy. The simple arithmetic of June shows the pain as positions rotate – European shares fell 3% but remain a favorite holding for US managers. The USD has dropped over 2% this week and fully unwound the Trump trade gains from November. US shares see the NASDAQ off 1% while the DJIA is up1%. The global bonds are up 20bps on the week in major centers but for the US they are still stuck in the middle of the 2Q range. Price action today also followed the calendar with month-end duration buying fighting the hawkish talk about rates from central banks. The prices action also followed the data – something that brought a bevy of economic surprises – from China PMI to German Jobs to higher Eurozone core CPI. Transitory factors are sifted from long-term trend with Japan’s jump in unemployment perhaps the most
surprising along with weaker industrial production. The day ahead for the US seems likely to be quiet given the excitement already provided by the week but the data ahead continues to matter along with FOMC speakers. The data dump risks of the day shouldn’t be ignored in the context of how central bankers react nor how politicians feel about being second fiddle again. For markets, the risk metric that seems most at odds is JPY with big support for USD at 111.15-111.30 essential into the new quarter and month. The 100-day is likely the pivot to watch today at 111.80.
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Robert Savage
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