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http://track.com/articles/the-morning-track-dollar-daze-2/
Can the US President talk down the USD and make it stick? That seems to be the key question still for markets as the US dollar rebounds despite his wishes for low rates, lower dollar– and despite a host of news overnight from the better China Trade data with exports up to Feb 2015 levels to an Australian unemployment report with the best jobs gain since Oct 2015 and to the Brazil Copom cutting rates 1% to 11.25%. The good news about growth in the rest of the world hasn’t been met with much enthusiasm by investors today effectively the last day for liquidity this week. The risk-off signals are still flashing fear with EUR/JPY at 116. Oil is flat and the IEA report today makes clear why – global oil inventories probably increased in 1Q despite OPEC’s near-perfect implementation of production cuts aimed at clearing the surplus. The mood is about policy and what politicians want rather than what central bankers or cartels do. Verbal interventions mean less than act
ions and that maybe the clear lesson of the day. Focus remains on the USD with the break in the US yields the fundamental driver more than anything Trump said in his WSJ interview. The fear factors about Russia/Syria or China/North Korea are a bit less today as is the fear about the risk of a Le Pen/Melenchon 2nd round – but no one is quite sure what happens over the weekend and so the dollar daze continues.
The Morning Track dollar-daze-2
- The Morning Track – Dollar Daze by Bob Savagehttp://track.com/articles/the-morning-track-dollar-daze-2/
Can the US President talk down the USD and make it stick? That seems to be the key question still for markets as the US dollar rebounds despite his wishes for low rates, lower dollar– and despite a host of news overnight from the better China Trade data with exports up to Feb 2015 levels to an Australian unemployment report with the best jobs gain since Oct 2015 and to the Brazil Copom cutting rates 1% to 11.25%. The good news about growth in the rest of the world hasn’t been met with much enthusiasm by investors today effectively the last day for liquidity this week. The risk-off signals are still flashing fear with EUR/JPY at 116. Oil is flat and the IEA report today makes clear why – global oil inventories probably increased in 1Q despite OPEC’s near-perfect implementation of production cuts aimed at clearing the surplus. The mood is about policy and what politicians want rather than what central bankers or cartels do. Verbal interventions mean less than act
ions and that maybe the clear lesson of the day. Focus remains on the USD with the break in the US yields the fundamental driver more than anything Trump said in his WSJ interview. The fear factors about Russia/Syria or China/North Korea are a bit less today as is the fear about the risk of a Le Pen/Melenchon 2nd round – but no one is quite sure what happens over the weekend and so the dollar daze continues.
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Robert Savage
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